Estonia’s PM: rules of engagement set for shooting down Russian jets

Estonia’s prime minister Kristen Michal said in an interview with the Estonian public broadcasting that there are specific parameters for shooting down Russian fighter jets violating Estonia’s border; at the same time, he noted that Estonia has the means to use force if necessary.

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace on 19 September in what officials in Tallinn called the most brazen breach of the Baltic state’s borders since Moscow launched its full-scale war against Ukraine.

The aircraft crossed near Vaindloo Island over the Gulf of Finland shortly after 9 AM, flying without flight plans, transponders or radio contact. They lingered for nearly twelve minutes before being forced out by Italian Air Force F-35s based at Estonia’s Ämari airbase under NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission.

At an emergency meeting of the security cabinet, Estonia’s government agreed to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which allows any member state to call consultations when it believes its security is under threat.

In the aftermath, prime minister Kristen Michal spoke with anchor Astrid Kannel on Estonian public broadcasting’s main evening news programme Aktuaalne Kaamera. Estonian World publishes the full interview.

Today is a day when Russia has clearly provoked us, and it is the right moment to tell NATO how they should defend us. What have we asked for, and what have we been promised?

First of all, I would say that NATO air defence worked – the aircraft went up and forced the Russian planes to leave. But of course, to remain in Estonian airspace for so long is, at the very least, malevolence, if not a deliberate operation. I have already been in touch with the NATO Secretary General several times, and our request is to trigger Article 4, which means political consultations among the allies, after which NATO will convene to discuss and decide what further measures are required.

Fortunately, Operation Eastern Sentry (a NATO mission launched on 12 September 2025 to strengthen the alliance’s defence posture along its eastern flank, in response to escalating threats – especially Russian drone incursions and airspace violations – ed.) has also been launched, focusing on Poland and the Baltic states. But our message with Article 4 is still that the defence of our airspace, and any violation of it here in the Baltics, must be taken seriously, and Russia’s desperate attempts at escalation must also be taken seriously.

Did the Russian jets leave immediately when they saw NATO’s fighters?

They had the chance to leave earlier.

Did they behave arrogantly?

They behaved in exactly the way we would expect from the Russians.

Why didn’t we shoot any of them down? That would have sent a very clear message to Russia.

I would put it this way: there are certain parameters for the use of force. They were directed out after being given a signal. But they did not leave as quickly as they could have. So, Article 4 and consultations within NATO, together with the Supreme Allied Commander, will clarify what we will do next time. But NATO works, NATO is ready, and the response capability is very good.”

When we talk about the air policing mission, it is, after all, a policing mission, not a defence mission. It has been said that the jets above us should not be mere observers, but actual combat machines. This has been discussed since 2014, when Crimea was annexed. Why is it still the same?

So that there is no doubt: we do have the capability to do what is necessary in our airspace, together with our NATO allies. But after the incursion into Polish airspace, Operation Eastern Sentry has been launched, which strengthens capabilities specifically on the eastern flank – in the Baltic states and Poland.

But it still remains an air policing mission?

The precise parameters are now to be formulated by NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, and this is what we will begin to discuss next week.

Does that mean that the F-35s – which are, after all, superb aircraft – can actually shoot down a Russian jet tomorrow if necessary, should they come again?

These aircraft are capable of doing everything, and we also have other means for this.

Today we are practically the top story in media outlets across the world. Have we acted, and has NATO acted, in a way that leaves a strong impression?

I would dare say yes. It is only logical that in democratic countries and within a military alliance consultations take place, and allies are informed. And then there is the practical side. In Poland, NATO reacted, shot down drones from its airspace. Here, NATO reacted. These are someone else’s aircraft, our NATO partners’ aircraft, the most modern in the world. The F-35s took off and ultimately forced the Russians to leave.

What has to happen for us to shoot them down?

Everything has its parameters. What I would want is for the Russians to be absolutely clear that they have no reason to wander here at all – not for us to reach the point where we start shooting them down.

But they will only understand once they are shot down.

I understand that belligerence, I understand that attitude, but the direction we are taking is to ensure there is no threat to the Estonian state, to the Estonian people or to Estonian airspace – and for the Russians to know to keep well away, as they should from all the Baltic states and Poland.

It is simply safer to shoot them down over Vaindloo than over Tallinn.

Yes, I am sure that as military advice this is perfectly sound. But once again – our actions are aimed at making the message clear. And even when we have the most powerful and the most modern fighters in the world guarding our skies, it must also be very clear to the Russians.