Trump's Iran war: A reckless gamble taking the US from 'America First' to 'America Alone'

‘PHEW’, OR ITS equivalent, must now be the most commonly uttered word on the planet. Although it may be a temporary reprieve, countless millions of us were gripped by a palpable fear about what might happen in Iran on Tuesday night.

Notwithstanding the frequent reassurances from Donald Trump’s allies to the effect that he should be taken seriously, not literally, our worry was entirely justified.

For it was startling in the extreme to read the online pronouncements of the President of the United States, even allowing for the fact that the current office holder conducts himself in a vastly different fashion than his predecessors.

A post that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” – following a dictate to Iranians to “open the F**kin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell” – led one US Senator to allege that these are “the rantings of a bloodthirsty lunatic.”

A couple of hours before the 1 AM (Irish time) deadline President Trump had set, he agreed to suspend the bombing and attack on Iran, provided that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Pakistan seems to have played a key role in brokering what seems to be a quite nebulous and fragile quasi-truce. JD Vance, who has opposed this war from the beginning, also appears to have been involved in bringing his boss around.

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Nobody wins

Trump is already claiming an unambiguous victory and singing his own praises. His public comments are belied by the contents of a ten point proposal from Iran, which he says is “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Among those points are a US commitment to no more acts of aggression, continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, etc.

While these will evidently only kick off the talks between the two nations, no reasonable observer of the events of the past six weeks can accept White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s assertion that the US has “achieved and exceeded our core military objectives in 38 days.” It does not survive a simple, cursory scrutiny.

Iran has arguably been strengthened in the region. One expert contends that hardliners in its government have been replaced by harder liners. Fuel prices and attendant costs have skyrocketed globally and, despite the protestations of President Trump, they will take some time to come down. Many innocent people, including approximately 160 young schoolchildren, have been killed. Moreover, there is absolutely no certainty that this fledgling pause in the conflict will last; it could easily disintegrate, and unimaginable chaos would then ensue.

A ‘no-conflict’ president?

President Trump was correct in 2016, 2020 and 2024 when he clearly and consistently highlighted the folly of US military interventions in the Middle East. For decades, young American women and men were sent to fight in wars endorsed by political leaders who had been captured by the military-industrial complex and its network of lobbyists.

These missions, which were based on ill-defined or fraudulent premises, did not improve the situation. Invariably, they made things worse in the region. Thousands of US soldiers died in battle or returned home with physical and mental scars that did not heal. It seems at the moment, yet it is far from guaranteed, that there will be no “boots on the ground” in Iran. But the final chapter has not been written.

Why President Trump chose, rather rashly, to do a 180 and authorise the use of force against Iran is a mystery and the subject of extensive conjecture. Was he really hoodwinked by Benjamin Netanyahu? Did he, in the face of contrary advice from whatever experts are left in his orbit, presume that Iran would be as easy as Venezuela? Was it a rush of blood to the head? Was it an effort to distract from the Epstein files?

At any rate, at the risk of being repetitive – and as we pray for an enduring ceasefire – this is still the biggest blunder of either of Donald Trump’s two stints as commander-in-chief. The opinion surveys on the war, on the economy and on his presidency generally are pretty disastrous for the GOP. The foul language and flailing about of late reflected the truth that, deep down, he knew he had made a terrible decision. Hence, he capitulated.

As the world looked on apprehensively, Democrats performed exceptionally in elections around the US. Republicans are in a difficult position because of the failings of this administration and because an incumbent second-term president’s party rarely fares well in the midterms.

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On the other hand, polling reveals Democrats are viewed favourably by a mere 28% of American voters, and 74% think the party has the wrong priorities. A substantial majority will be picking the least bad option in November. That’s not great for a society in the grip of a malaise.

What voters think

In this vein, Yvonne Murray, RTÉ’s New York-based global security reporter, presciently noted to an Irish audience that Americans are much more removed than Europeans from the bombings in Iran and in its vicinity, further separated by a vast ocean. Consequently, conversations stateside were as likely to feature the just concluded NCAA basketball championship or this weekend’s Masters in Augusta, Georgia, as the prospect of the literal elimination of Iran.

Additionally, the extent to which the citizenry of the US is inured to their president’s hyperbolic, often frightening rhetoric was laid bare in texts sent back and forth to my pals in Boston on Tuesday. As we in this country fretted, they were, no matter their perspective on Trump, unanimous: he was not going to follow through on his threats. It is hard to know whether their fairly confident, shared assessment stems from genuine exasperation or self-preserving denial, or a mixture of both.

President Trump’s war on Iran marks a total departure from the “America First” message he employed so successfully on the campaign trail. But perhaps I have been a little off in characterising that as the dominant mood there.

In 2026, “America Alone” might be a more apt label, such is the widening foreign policy and attitudinal gulf between the land of my birth and nearly everywhere else.

Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.

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