Venezuela: There will be few tears for Maduro but Trump’s military gamble risks bloody chaos

AIRCRAFT STRUCK SITES across the Venezuelan capital of Caracas in the hours before US President Trump announced that American forces had captured Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.

Trump has since released a photo of Maduro blindfolded on an American warship stationed in the Caribbean Sea. Maduro and his wife are then set to be taken to New York where US Attorney General Pam Bondi says the two will face drug and weapons charges and “the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts”.

The Venezuelan authorities have not yet released details about the scale of the damage or casualties in Caracas. In a televised address, Venezuela’s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced an immediate deployment of military forces across the country. 

The Maduro regime and its brand of chavismo have long been supported by a network of military leaders and well-armed urban and rural militias, alongside the Colombian rebel group ELN, which are now facing a power vacuum left by the US seizure of Maduro.

López called for a united front of resistance in the face of “the worst aggression” ever against Venezuela and said the country was following “Maduro’s orders” that all armed forces be deployed. The Defence Minister said: “They’ve attacked us, but they will not subdue us.” 

A clear justification for the US military operation in Caracas has not yet been offered, while no congressional approval was sought by the Trump administration for an act of war against Venezuela. Without the approval of the US Congress, Trump’s actions violate US law – even George W. Bush sought and received congressional approval for America’s disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003. 

In response to criticism by Democrats regarding the lack of congressional approval, Trump said in a Fox News interview: “They should say great job.

“They shouldn’t say ‘Oh, gee, maybe it’s not constitutional.’ You know the same old stuff that we’ve been hearing for years and years and years.”

The unprecedented military operation in Caracas to depose Maduro comes after months of mounting tensions between Venezuela and the US, which have played out against the backdrop of one of the largest deployments of American forces to the Caribbean in decades.

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Escalating strikes carried out by American forces on small vessels in the Caribbean Sea around Venezuela have killed at least 100 people so far this year. While providing little or no evidence, the Trump administration has claimed these vessels were trafficking drugs, using this as a justification for extra-judicial killings prohibited by both US law and the Geneva Convention.

US military aggression in the Caribbean appears to have been largely aimed at providing a muscular display of American power and fracturing the rule of Maduro in order to secure regime change in Venezuela. 

The credibility of the Trump administration’s claim that the assaults on Venezuela are part of a crackdown on drugs is challenged in particular by the White House’s decision last month to pardon Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras who ran the country as a narco-state for nearly a decade. 

As the US struck vessels in the Caribbean allegedly trafficking drugs, the corrupt former president of Honduras was released from the US prison where he was serving 45 years for trafficking cocaine and possessing machine guns. Trump said the investigation into Orlando was a “Biden administration set-up” and that “they basically said he was a drug dealer because he was the president of the country”. 

Maduro’s current plight will draw sympathy from few. A dictatorial leader who stole his country’s 2024 presidential elections, Maduro has a long track record of extra-judicial killings, torture and forced disappearances.

Nearly eight million people have fled Venezuela’s economic collapse to seek a better and more stable life across Latin America, the Caribbean and the US. There is little doubt that most Venezuelans want to see political change and some Venezuelans abroad have been seen celebrating the president’s capture with cries of “¡Viva Venezuela libre!” But few in Venezuela will welcome large-scale strikes in the middle of Caracas. 

In the aftermath of the attacks on the Venezuelan capital, the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said: “The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition” before calling for restraint and respect for the UN charter and international law. 

It is unclear who is now in power in Venezuela. 

Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, is technically next in the line of succession and has made a public appearance calling for proof of life for Maduro.  

Maduro’s opponent during the flawed 2024 presidential elections was Edmundo González, who replaced Maria Corina Machado after she was barred from running in the elections. After the presidential contest, the US recognised González as the legitimate leader of Venezuela; while Machado recently won the Nobel Peace Prize and publicly called for foreign intervention in Venezuela against Maduro – which attracted some controversy. 

Trump declined to publicly support Machado in his Fox News interview today.

Related Reads

Trump says US will ‘run’ Venezuela until new regime and US oil firms will go to the country

Global reaction to US operation in Venezuela focused on ramifications for international law

Opinion: US strikes in the Caribbean show how far Washington has drifted from the rule of law

In a statement on social media, Machado called for national unity and said: “Given [Maduro]‘s refusal to accept a negotiated exit, the government of the United States has fulfilled its promise to enforce the law.

“We have struggled for years, we have given it our all, and it has been worth it. What had to happen is happening.” 

Machado called for González to “immediately” take office and be recognised as the country’s commander of the armed forces.

Trump has other ideas for who will run Venezuela. 

In a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, Trump said that the US was going to run oil-rich Venezuela until a transitional government could be put installed – “We are going to stay until such time that a proper transition can take place.”

He continued: “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

The International Crisis Group wrote in October 2025: “Any incoming post-Maduro government will have to deal with a dysfunctional, politicised bureaucracy; a major economic and humanitarian crisis; and collapsed infrastructure.”

History has repeatedly shown us that regime change enforced by foreign military action often leads to a surge in violence, particularly in unstable countries awash with weapons and oil like Venezuela.

Whoever succeeds Maduro will be taking over a state where chavismo has been entrenched across the three branches of power and deep within the security forces. They will have to consider whether to work with existing power brokers or attempt a (likely bloody) purge of those who worked for Maduro. What will happen if the military refuses to recognise the new government?

There are many questions left unanswered as Venezuelans watch Trump’s gamble play out.

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