Long-Range ATACMS Missiles Won't Win the War for Ukraine

Should ATACMS be launched at targets deep within Russia, Putin would be required to retaliate—escalating an already dangerous situation—which might very well end any chance of a ceasefire.

What You Need to Know: The Biden administration's last-minute approval for Ukraine to deploy Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against targets in Russia risks escalating the conflict and undermining any chance for a ceasefire.

-While these missiles offer a range of 190 miles, their strategic impact on the battlefield is questionable, as much of Russia's war production occurs far from the frontlines.

-Critics warn that the use of ATACMS could provoke direct NATO-Russia confrontation, intensify Russian retaliation, and damage Ukraine further.

-Additionally, if Russia successfully defends against ATACMS, global confidence in U.S. military technology could weaken, emboldening adversaries like China.

America’s ATACMS Nightmare is Underway

There has been much breathless anticipation on the part of the Western media over the fact that, in the eleventh hour, the lame-duck presidency of Joseph R. Biden, Jr., has authorized the Ukrainians to deploy American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against targets located deep inside of the Russian Federation. This was something that the Biden administration had refused to allow Ukraine to do for the entirety of their war against Russia.

With about a month and half to go before President-Elect Donald J. Trump is sworn in as the forty-seventh Commander-in-Chief, who won this year’s election on a clear mandate of ending the Ukraine War, his predecessor is attempting to lock his incoming administration into a war with Russia that it does not want. Trump and his team anticipate being able to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the Ukraine War. 

But, at some point, the regime of Vladimir Putin, which very much desires a ceasefire, will be unable to ignore the obvious provocations from the Americans.

The ATACMS Could Spark a Wider War

Should ATACMS be launched at targets deep within Russia (reports are breaking that has indeed occurred), Putin would be required to retaliate—escalating an already dangerous situation—which might very well end any chance of a ceasefire. Indeed, it could result in an unwillingness on the part of the Russian Federation to negotiate at all, putting the Russians into a use-it-lose-it mentality that would necessitate victory-at-all-costs. 

This, in turn, would likely prompt direct NATO military involvement. In all, it wouldn’t matter who won that particular fight…because Ukraine, or rather, whatever was left of Ukraine, would be obliterated. 

Just as with the blessed tanks or the much-ballyhooed F-16s that were sent over the last year to Ukraine by NATO, the use of ATACMS will do little in the way of fundamentally changing the conditions on the frontline of the war. That’s because the Russians are fully committed to this war (Putin has labeled this conflict as being “existential” and politicians who do that are unlikely to simply walk away from it when things get rough). 

Just look at the ridiculous Ukrainian foray into Kursk. In an attempt to rewrite the narrative that Ukraine was losing the war (it was and is), Kiev ordered about 10,000 of their best troops to get off the frontlines against Russia in Eastern Ukraine and launch an “invasion” of the Kursk region just across the border in Russia. 

Some have speculated, in fact, that the ATACMS might only be used in support of that ongoing operation (which is not going well for the Ukrainians). We can only hope that’s the case. But that operation has also resulted in nothing gained at the strategic level and has depleted the frontlines with Russia in Eastern Ukraine of some of the best Ukrainian troops and equipment.

Now those better trained Ukrainian troops and equipment in Kursk will be destroyed—irrespective of whether ATACMS protect them.

Understanding ATACMS

Beyond that, the ATACMS could become a major source of direct conflict between Russia and NATO. This is something that Vladimir Putin and his top ministers have repeatedly expressed in public. Yet, the Americans and their NATO partners ignore Moscow to their own detriment. 

How would the Americans view the deployment of long-range missiles by Russia in Mexico targeting American cities? We would not be too happy and would likely risk a wider war with Russia if that were the case. It’s no different for Russia and Ukraine.

Not only is the use of ATACMS highly destabilizing, but there is a real chance that the Russians can defend themselves from ATACMS. Should that occur, the rest of the world will come to believe that American technology is nowhere near as greater as it was believed to be before the Ukraine War commenced. After all, not even the powerful M1 Abrams tank or F-16 warplane could stop the current Russian onslaught against Ukraine.

If the Russia's were able to repel the ATACMS assault, the rest of the world—notably China—would understand that US military technology was weak and could be overcome. 

What Are ATACMS, Really?

As for the capabilities of the ATACMS. These weapons were originally to fight the Soviet Union if the Cold War had become a hot one. Built by American defense contractor, Lockheed Martin, an ATACM has a range of about 190 miles.

These systems could target Russian weapons and equipment depots supporting the defense of Kursk, supply lines, and other Russian bases within Russia. But Russia is a big nation—and much of its war machine is being produced in the Russian Far East, well removed from the fighting. 

All the ATACMS will do is prolong the war and antagonize the Russians even more than they have already been. What’s more, it ensures that the Americans will lose their Ukrainian partner. The only way out is via negotiation. The Americans under Biden won’t have it. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.

About the Author: 

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.