What next for Mamata? The possible Trinamool split, 59 rebel MLAs, and the fate of Bengal politics

TMC chief and former West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee alleged that the BJP is trying to engineer a split within the Trinamool Congress.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, led by Mamata Banerjee, appears to be heading towards a major split, with nearly 60 dissident MLAs reportedly preparing to back expelled legislator Ritabrata Banerjee as the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly. If the move materialises, the breakaway faction could emerge as the recognised TMC group in the House, drawing parallels with the political realignment witnessed in Maharashtra in 2022.

According to reports, expelled MLA Ritabrata Banerjee has reached assembly with 59 signatures on Wednesday. 

Members of the dissident camp have reportedly obtained the backing of nearly 60 of the TMC’s 80 MLAs in support of Ritabrata Banerjee’s candidature. According to senior party leader they will submit letter to Bengal Assembly Speaker Rathindra Bose on Wednesday.

Tapas Roy, a minister in the state cabinet led by Suvendu Adhikari and, a former TMC leader, hinted at a rift within his former party in a Facebook post on Tuesday. He wrote, "The Trinamool Congress has shattered into pieces. The Trinamool now faces a situation akin to that of Maharashtra; Ritabrata has arrived at the Assembly Speaker’s office accompanied by nearly 50 TMC MLAs."

Addressing a rally in Kolkata on Tuesday, TMC leader and former West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee alleged that the BJP is trying to engineer a split within the Trinamool Congress.

“A conspiracy has been hatched from Delhi to split the TMC. But we will not allow it to happen. We will fight.”

The crisis erupted over the appointment of Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the West Bengal Assembly. TMC leadership nominated veteran Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay, backed by a letter purportedly signed by 70 MLAs. However, Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha alleged massive forgery in the signatures, including block letters and fabricated consents. They lodged a complaint, prompting a police probe. In response, the TMC expelled both leaders on June 1, 2026, citing anti-party activities. This swift action only fueled the rebellion. 

Also Read | TMC cracks down on party ranks, expels Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha over anti-party activities

What happens next in the Assembly?

The immediate battle is for recognition in the House. With TMC reduced to around 78-80 MLAs post-expulsions and BJP in power, the Speaker will play a crucial role. If rebels submit letters from a significant chunk (claims hover around two-thirds support in some narratives), they could challenge the official TMC’s LoP nominee.

However, anti-defection provisions under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution complicate matters. The law no longer recognizes “splits” as exemptions after the 91st Amendment (only mergers with two-thirds support are protected). Individual or smaller group defections risk disqualification by the Speaker. A large enough faction might avoid immediate disqualification by claiming they represent the original party.

Also Read | West Bengal: TMC throws out two MLAs, but is a bigger revolt brewing? The one number BJP is waiting for

EC’s role in party split

For the bigger prize, the party name, symbol (Jora Ghas Phool), and official recognition, the matter will likely land before the Election Commission of India. Under the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968 (Paragraph 15), the ECI adjudicates disputes in recognized parties.

It examines support in the legislative wing (MLAs/MPs), organizational structure, and adherence to the party constitution. The faction with demonstrable majority usually gets the symbol; the other may register anew or get a new symbol. Precedents like Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction retained the name and bow-arrow) show the ECI’s decision is final and binding, though often litigated in courts. 

If rebels prove majority support (eg, over 50 of 80 MLAs), they could claim the TMC legacy. Otherwise, the official Mamata faction is likely to prevail. The process involves hearings, evidence of support letters, and organizational strength.

The TMC split reflects deeper issues: post-defeat recriminations, alleged centralization of power, and resentment against the Banerjee family’s dominance. For Ritabrata’s camp, it is about reclaiming “original” TMC values. For Mamata, it is an existential fight against engineered division.