Iran could expand war to Indian Ocean if US attacks again: Khamenei's adviser; what it means for India

An Iranian Supreme Leader adviser has warned that the conflict could expand into the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel launches another attack, raising concerns for India’s energy supplies, trade routes and maritime security.

Iran may expand the Middle East war to the Indian Ocean if the United States or Israel launch another attack, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader has issued warning, as tension between Washington and Tehran escalates again in recent days. 

“Since the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it is possible that, in response to more war, the front will expand even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond,” says Yahya Rahim Safavi in a video released by Iran’s Fars news agency.

The statement from a senior advisor come amid heightened tensions between Iran and the US, particularly in and around the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and major maritime trade routes. Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any renewed US military action could trigger retaliation against American interests and assets across the region.

On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also said it could change its military strategies and targets if further provoked, according to the Associated Press.

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Significance of Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean ranks as the third-largest of the world’s five oceans, spanning roughly 70.5 million square kilometres (27.2 million square miles) and accounting for about 20% of the planet’s water surface. Its northern boundary is formed by Asia, encompassing countries such as India, Iran, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

A critical chokepoint is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and, beyond that, the Indian Ocean. Attacks and elevated security risks have already disrupted shipping through this waterway.

The same pressures have also affected the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

On Monday, Reuters reported that only 17 commodity vessels transited Hormuz over the weekend, down from 37 the prior week and a pre-war daily average of around 125. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has likewise fallen.

Impact on India 

For India, this raises serious risks. Most of its oil, LNG, and LPG imports, plus a large share of trade, move through these waters and nearby chokepoints like Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

Wider disruption would drive up shipping costs, insurance premiums, and energy prices, fuelling inflation. It could also threaten Indian seafarers, vessels, and the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf.

As a self-declared net security provider in the region, India may need stronger naval patrols and diplomatic efforts to keep sea lanes open and protect its economic interests.

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