Balen Shah effect: How a rapper-engineer is toppling Nepal's political old guard | EXPLAINED

Early trends from Nepal's March 5 elections show Balen Shah leading veteran leader KP Oli in Jhapa-5. From rap battles to the national stage, explore how the "Balen Effect" and the RSP are dominating the 2026 polls.

Nepal election 2026 results: Everyone wants a slice of history in Nepal's Eastern Plains. In Jhapa-5, the line for a quick photo with Balendra 'Balen' Shah stretches through the corridors. Even if it means missing work, having fevers, and missing medical appointments, people want to catch a ten-second glimpse of Nepal’s newest sensation wearing black shades.

As vote counting begins, trends indicate a major shift in Nepal’s political landscape after the March 5 general elections.

The contest: A rapper vs. the 'old guard'

The Jhapa-5 constituency is the most closely watched race in Nepal's elections. In this fight, 35-year-old structural engineer and rapper Balen Shah is going up against 74-year-old KP Sharma Oli, who leads the CPN-UML and has been Nepal's prime minister four times.

Balen, who is running under the Rastriya Swatantra Party, is fighting for something much bigger than a constituency. In the wake of the September 2025 protests, which claimed 77 lives and led to Oli’s resignation, Balen has been at the forefront of the movement for "clean governance."

From 'Raw Barz' to Rajpath: The rise of Balen

Balen's evolution from an aspiring civil engineer in India to Nepal’s most influential political figure can be characterised by the juxtaposition of poetry and pragmatism:

The artist: Balen won the country’s best rap battle competition, Raw Barz, in 2013, using rap to address the country’s stagnating political environment.

The mayor: In 2022, running as an independent, he won the Kathmandu mayoral race, becoming famous for using bulldozers to remove unauthorized structures and halting the collection of trash to protest federal inaction.

The politician: Following his resignation as Kathmandu’s mayor in January, he joined the RSP, indicating that he is now geared up to take on the political establishment, which has dominated Nepal for decades.

Early trends: RSP surges in Kathmandu and beyond

Preliminary results released on the 6th of March indicate the massive presence of the RSP Wave.

Jhapa-5 lead: Balen Shah is leading the incumbent KP Oli in the early results, which have shown the RSP candidate with an overwhelming advantage in the incumbent’s home turf.

National performance: According to the early results, the RSP is in the lead in dozens of constituencies, particularly dominating the Kathmandu Valley.

Voter turnout: The Election Commission estimated a voter turnout of 60%, with one million new voters, mostly belonging to Gen Z, having registered since last year’s protests.

A generation seeking a future

To many, Balen is the only hope for stability in the country. "How long I will be working in Kuwait depends on Balen’s victory," declares Bipana Oli, a migrant worker who returned home to participate in the election, who is aged 25. The RSP’s manifesto, promising 1.2 million new jobs and a $100 billion GDP, is of particular appeal to the millions of young Nepalis who, historically, leave the country in search of work.

As the interim government, led by Sushila Karki, Nepal’s first female prime minister, is ready to transfer power, the results of this election will show if the ‘Balen effect’ will translate into a stable government.

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