Why India is monitoring Nepal election results: Balen Shah's surge and the 'Big Brother' row

As Balen Shah's RSP secures a historic lead in Nepal’s 2026 elections, New Delhi remains on edge. Explore why the NPR 100 banknote map row and the 'Big Brother' accusations make this election a crucial test for India-Nepal ties.

As the first ballot boxes open in Nepal’s historic 2026 general elections, the counting centers are being watched just as carefully from South Block in New Delhi as they are in Kathmandu. This election, the first since the ‘Gen Z’ revolution brought down the KP Sharma Oli government, could be a defining moment in the relationship between India and Nepal, which has been in a state of ‘cautious pause' for nearly a year now.

The stakeholders: A three-way battle for power

The votes are being counted for the 3,406 candidates currently in the fray, but for New Delhi, it is a battle of three different political ideologies:

The resurgent left

The Marxist prime ministers who are looking to make a comeback on a plank of 'territorial sovereignty.'

The disruptor

Balen Shah, the rapper-turned-mayor, has struck a chord with the youth through his ‘Nepal First’ plank, but he has left New Delhi a little perplexed.

The establishment

The Nepali Congress, which traditionally favours a more stable relationship with India.

The shadow of 2025: From protests to the polls

The current indecision in New Delhi is a direct outcome of the political instability in Nepal in September 2025, when the youth-driven protests against corruption and unemployment not only brought a change in the government but also a change in the political discourse in Nepal.

For the last six months, New Delhi has been in a state of "wait and watch," holding back on the initiation of major infrastructure and connectivity projects in Nepal, awaiting the emergence of a new government from the current interim government led by Sushila Karki.

Flashpoint: The currency and the map dispute

The territorial dispute over the Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura regions is the first point of contention in the current relationship.

The banknote row

In November 2025, New Delhi issued a strong statement against Nepal after the latter introduced a new NPR 100 banknote featuring the disputed regions on its map.

The MEA statement

The Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi termed the Nepal government's action a "unilateral act," which does not change the ground reality, whereas Nepal claims these regions are "integral parts" of its territory east of the Mahakali River.
The 'Big Brother'

The 'Big Brother' narrative and the blockade legacy

One of the prevailing narratives in this election cycle is the accusation of India’s ‘Big Brother’ policies. The left-wing parties have managed to tap into the nationalist sentiment in the country by bringing up the 2015 constitutional crisis and the subsequent four-month-long border blockade.

The Indian defense

India has always argued against the term ‘blockade,’ claiming that the issues arose out of the Nepalese protests in their territory.

The nationalist sentiment

In 2026, this issue has gained a new dimension. Although the trade via the Lipulekh border is an issue, the ‘interfering neighbors’ narrative is a potent vote-grabber in the Nepalese plains as well as the hills.

The Balen factor: A diplomatic wildcard?

The most unpredictable factor for the Indian diplomats will be the rise of Balen Shah. Although his party sees him as a ‘self-reliance’ icon, his past outbursts on social media as well as his ‘confrontational’ style of governance as the mayor of Kathmandu have led the Indians to believe that he is a populist with anti-India leanings.

If the Rastriya Swatantra Party or Shah manages to secure a dominant position in the new government, India will have to deal

If Shah or the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) manages to wield power in the new government, New Delhi might have to deal with a leader who is focused on delivering a "digital-first," nationalist agenda rather than adhering to traditional diplomatic niceties.

What lies ahead?

The 2026 election offers a chance to restart the relationship. A strong government in Kathmandu could provide the necessary impetus to break the impasse in trade and border issues. However, if the outcome is a fractured parliament or a nationalist coalition, the "shadow war" of maps and mandates will continue, leading to ongoing tensions and unresolved disputes that could hinder progress in diplomatic relations.

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