The Return Of Bangladesh's Prince, Tarique Rahman, After 17 Years: What It Means For India

For India, Rahman’s homecoming is politically significant. With the pro-India Awami League barred from contesting the elections and Khaleda Zia hospitalised, Bangladesh faces a volatile political climate. Interim chief Muhammad Yunus has struggled to contain radical Islamist groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami, widely seen as aligned with Pakistan’s ISI, which has regained political ground after being banned under Sheikh Hasina.

After 17 years in self-imposed exile, Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and long regarded as the “dark prince” of Bangladesh politics, is set to return to Dhaka on Thursday. His return comes weeks ahead of the crucial February elections and marks a significant moment for both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the violence-hit nation.

For India, Rahman’s homecoming is politically significant. With the pro-India Awami League barred from contesting the elections and Khaleda Zia hospitalised, Bangladesh faces a volatile political climate. Interim chief Muhammad Yunus has struggled to contain radical Islamist groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami, widely seen as aligned with Pakistan’s ISI, which has regained political ground after being banned under Sheikh Hasina.

Recent opinion polls suggest the BNP is likely to secure the most seats, but Jamaat remains a strong competitor. The party’s student wing has also made surprising gains in the Dhaka University elections, raising concerns in New Delhi.

Why India Is Watching

Despite historically strained relations, India views the BNP as a more liberal and democratic option compared with the current interim government. A BNP victory could stabilise Bangladesh’s political environment and potentially reverse recent shifts in foreign policy. Under Hasina, Bangladesh maintained close ties with India and kept a cautious distance from China and Pakistan. Under Yunus, relations with Pakistan have strengthened at the expense of Indian ties.

Rahman’s past criticisms of the Yunus government, especially regarding foreign policy decisions, and his refusal to ally with Jamaat in the elections, are seen positively in New Delhi. Earlier this year, Rahman outlined a “Bangladesh First” foreign policy, modelled on the US “America First” slogan, emphasising national interests over alignment with either India or Pakistan.

India has also recently extended support to Khaleda Zia during her critical illness, a gesture warmly received by the BNP.

Rahman’s Homecoming

Rahman, who has led the BNP from London since 2008, is expected to arrive in Dhaka around noon on Thursday. The party plans a massive roadshow from the airport to his residence, with around 50 lakh supporters expected to join. He will also address a large rally.

Rahman is likely to contest the Bogura-6 (Sadar) seat, while Khaleda Zia will again stand from her stronghold, Bogura-7 (Gabtali-Shajahanpur). Authorities have deployed the highest level of security, with restricted access at Dhaka airport and special trains bringing thousands of supporters to the capital.

Senior BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi told Reuters, “This will be a defining political moment.”

Background On Tarique Rahman

Rahman, son of former President Ziaur Rahman, has been based in London since 2008. He faced multiple convictions during Sheikh Hasina’s regime, which the BNP claims were politically motivated. In 2007, he was arrested in a corruption case and suffered serious health issues while in custody. He later secured bail and permission to travel to London for medical treatment.

Rahman was also sentenced in absentia for the 2004 Dhaka grenade attack at an Awami League rally, which left 24 people dead. Between 2001 and 2006, during the BNP’s tenure, he was implicated in corruption and financial irregularities, earning him the nickname “dark prince.”

Challenges Ahead

While Rahman’s return is expected to energise the BNP, he faces the task of uniting the party and appealing to young voters in a nation marred by protests and political violence. India will be closely monitoring developments in the coming weeks.