India-Pakistan relations 'very tense' - DCU professor

A deadly attack on tourists in the disputed region of Kashmir has sparked a new crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbours, India and Pakistan.

Dr Jivanta Schottli, Assistant Professor in Indian Politics and Foreign Policy at Dublin City University, described the current diplomatic and political situation as "very tense".

She also noted that the targeting of civilians made this attack particularly shocking for the nation.

The attack took place in the picturesque valley near the town of Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir, often referred to as "little Switzerland".

On Tuesday, three gunmen emerged from the woods and opened fire, killing 26 men.

According to survivor accounts, the attackers specifically targeted Hindu tourists.

The attack shattered a growing sense of "security in the region, where the return of tourism brought economic stability and optimism in recent years", Dr Schottli said.

New Delhi claimed the militants had "cross-border" ties, with some allegedly being Pakistani nationals.

Pakistan denied any involvement, stating it had no knowledge of any of its citizens participating in the attack.

India responded swiftly by revoking visas for Pakistani nationals, ordering their departure from the country by the end of the week, expelling Pakistan's military diplomats and closing a major border crossing.

Key water treaty at risk

India also announced the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.

The crucial pact, brokered by the World Bank in the 1960s, has long been one of the few enduring agreements between the two nations.

"It is seen as one of the few successful agreements between India and Pakistan that managed to survive," Dr Schottli said.

The treaty governs access to the Indus River and its tributaries, with India controlling the upstream flow - a geographical advantage.

The decision has sparked concern in Pakistan, where agriculture heavily depends on water from the Indus basin, that India might move to block the flow.

Dr Schottli said the suspension is being used by India as both an ultimatum and a warning, but added that its impact "won’t be immediate".

India lacks the infrastructure to divert the river’s flow, as the treaty had barred dam construction on its side.

However, she described the move as "highly emotive", adding it is a way for the Indian government to show its people that it is taking decisive retaliatory steps.

But it is also largely "symbolic", she said, adding the treaty had long been treated as "sacred" and had never been "militarised" before.

This marks a new and deeply troubling low in bilateral relations, which Dr Schottli called "tragic".

Speaking to the BBC, Pakistan’s defence minister said Islamabad would appeal to the World Bank, calling India’s suspension of the treaty a "declaration of war".

What Is Kashmir?

The region of Kashmir has been contested since the partition of India in 1947 and is divided by the Line of Control between India and Pakistan.

Both countries claim the Muslim-majority region in full.

The Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir had long enjoyed special autonomous status under Article 370 of the constitution.

This provision granted the region certain privileges, including a ban on Indian nationals from other states purchasing land there - a measure aimed at preserving the identity and demographic balance of the local population.

However, in 2019, the Indian government abrogated the article, revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.

The move was met with "resentment", Dr Schottli said, but she noted that "economic prosperity boosted by tourism brought optimism" to the region in its aftermath.

Kashmir Resistance, the little-known group that claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack, emerged in the wake of this constitutional change.

It is believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a Delhi-based think tank.

Will India respond militarily?

India has a history of military retaliation in response to attacks in the region and has again promised a "strong response".

Dr Schottli pointed to recent examples.

In 2016, following the killing of 18 Indian soldiers at a military base in Kashmir, India launched what it called "cross-border surgical" strikes.

In 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama killed 40 Indian security personnel, prompting India to carry out airstrikes on what it claimed was a militant training camp in Balakot, Pakistan.

This time, however, it is unclear whether any military options are being seriously considered.

Dr Schottli suggested Pakistan is likely prepared for escalation and that the "element of surprise is now gone".

She also noted that India may look to the United States or Israel for possible intelligence support.

While New Delhi has not provided details of any potential military action, Dr Schottli expects economic and diplomatic isolation between the two nations to intensify, potentially leading to a "total breakdown" in relations.