US midterms set to deliver verdict on Trump presidency

In the United States, millions of voters are heading to the polls today as the final day of voting gets underway in the midterm elections.

The outcome will determine which party controls Congress for the second half of Donald Trump's presidency.

Republicans are defending their record in power over the last two years while Democrats are hoping to turn voter frustration into electoral gains

Polling suggests Democrats are well positioned to win control of the House but the battle for the Senate, the upper house, is tighter.

Republicans losing the House would give Democrats the power to stall Mr Trump's legislative agenda and launch sweeping investigations of his administration.

A Senate defeat would also threaten his ability to appoint Supreme Court judges and senior officials.

All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are at stake, along with governorships in 36 states.

Democrats need only three House gains and a net four seats in the Senate to wrest both chambers from Republican hands.

The election amounts to a nationwide judgement on Mr Trump, with the mood turning sharply against Republicans amid anger over soaring living costs and the war against Iran.

Immigration and the economy have also been among the central issues.

This is the most expensive US midterm election campaign in American history, with the total cost projected to reach almost $12 billion.

Mr Trump returned to office last year promising to bring down prices, but inflation, tariffs and fuel costs inflated by the Middle East conflict have squeezed Americans.

The 80-year-old's approval rating has hovered near the low 30s.

Economic discontent

Republicans insist that Mr Trump's tax cuts and immigration crackdown will benefit Americans and they are portraying Democratic candidates as left-wing radicals.

However, in his final public campaign appearance, Mr Trump barely touched on the economy and spent most of the time in a rambling talk about his problem-plagued renovation of Washington's Reflecting Pool.

"This is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midterm I believe in our lifetime," he said, 26 minutes into the speech, before quickly returning to talking about renovations.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer branded it a "pathetic closing message".

Some Republican supporters remain confident.

"We're going to win. As a matter of fact, we've probably already won," Texas military veteran Yvonne Clouser told AFP.

However, while Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, the battlefield is extending into conservative states like Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska.

Democrats must also defend competitive seats, including in Michigan, where a bitter internal dispute saw congresswoman Haley Stevens endorse Republican Mike Rogers rather than the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed.

Decision Desk HQ's final forecast forecasted 241 House seats for Democrats against 194 for Republicans, and a narrower 52-48 Democratic Senate majority.

Disputed results?

Polls can underestimate one party's support, and Republicans hope their voters turn out in force on Election Day.

More than 57 million Americans had already voted early, indicating the high energy.

The campaign has attracted more than $11 billion in political advertising, while billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Republican political efforts.

As soon as polls close, concerns will mount over whether results will be accepted by the Republicans.

Mr Trump, who tried to overturn his 2020 election defeat, has repeatedly alleged widespread voter fraud and accused Democrats - with no evidence - of cheating.

A judge yesterday temporarily barred the Trump administration from moving ahead with a plan it says would prevent non-citizen voting, but that critics say risks disenfranchising eligible voters and infringing on states' authority over elections.

US District Judge Tanya Chutkan barred the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security from sending states lists of registered voters the administration says may not be citizens, and from asking state election officials to separate out those voters' ballots or not count them until citizenship is proven.

Judge Chutkan, a Washington, DC-based appointee of former Democratic President Barack Obama, said the administration's data may not be reliable, meaning there was a risk that lawfully registered voters would be disenfranchised.

The Justice Department, run by a close Trump ally, has already sued to potentially block certification of Alaska's Senate race if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan narrowly loses, although a court ruled against the effort on the eve of the election.

And the Supreme Court rejected an emergency bid to force California to set aside the mail-in ballots of more than 20,000 people on the grounds they may not be American citizens.

Mr Trump, who will watch the midterms results at the White House, signalled that if he does lose control of Congress he could simply defy Democrats.

"I veto everything," he told a podcast yesterday, although he said he might strike deals with Democrats eventually.

Additional reporting: AFP, Reuters