Has Iran war heightened terrorism threat in US?

Sheikh Abbas al-Musawi was travelling to Beirut in a black Mercedes with his wife and five-year-old son on 16 February 1992.

The then secretary-general of the Iran-backed Hezbollah organisation was accompanied by two Range Rovers filled with armed bodyguards.

He had just attended a ceremony marking the anniversary of the assassination of one of Hezbollah's founders.

But chasing them were Israeli Apache AH-64 helicopters, which unleashed missiles on the convoy and killed the Hezbollah leader and his family.

This was one of the most significant assassinations carried out against a Hezbollah official since the emergence of the group following Israel’s invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon.

The following month, a suicide bomber attacked the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people and wounding 200.

Years later, another bombing killed dozens and wounded hundreds after targeting a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires.

Argentina and its allies have blamed Hezbollah and Iran for the attacks, though both have denied responsibility.

These attacks are why one of the leading experts in terrorism in the United States, Professor Bruce Hoffman, said he believes that Iran sees revenge as a "dish best served cold".

"So, this is a threat that regardless if and when the war ends anytime soon, we'll continue into the future," he said.

Prof Hoffman served as a commissioner on the independent commission to review the FBI's post-9/11 response to terrorism and radicalisation.

Now a senior fellow for counter-terrorism and homeland security with the Council for Foreign Relations, he said the joint US-Israel war in Iran should put the United States on high alert, and the history is there to prove it.

"In 1981, following the fall of the shah of Iran and the revolution that brought the Ayatollah Khomeini to power, the shah's former spokesperson was gunned down at a suburban Maryland home.

"Fast forward to 2011, when there was a very serious plot by Iran, Iranian agents, the IRGC, to assassinate Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States in a very upscale Washington restaurant," he said.

"In recent years, there have been repeated accounts of Iranian efforts in the United States to enlist drug traffickers, street gangs, mafia types, motorcycle gangs, to either kidnap or assassinate Iranian dissident residents in the United States," he added.

The Iran war has already ushered in a new era of "lone wolf" attacks in the US.

A car ramming and shooting attack at a large Michigan synagogue last month was a "Hezbollah-inspired act of terrorism" targeting the Jewish community, according to the FBI on Monday.

A US citizen, originally from Lebanon, bought the AR-style rifle used in the attack on 9 March, three days before he rammed his truck loaded with gas and fireworks into Temple Israel and opened fire.

The attacker died at the scene. Nobody else was injured.

The concern is that what happened in Michigan may not be an isolated incident, and there could be more on US soil, from lone-wolf attacks to cyber hacks and targeted killings.

One of those who was the target of a recent failed assassination attempt by an Iranian operative is former National Security Advisor to Donald Trump, John Bolton.

Federal officials in 2022 said the suspect was a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, who allegedly tried to hire a hitman for $300,000 (€260,244) who was actually an FBI informant.

Mr Bolton is reluctant to do interviews in person these days, and we speak, instead, over Zoom.

"It's just a question of situational awareness and on the lookout for things that might be suspicious," he said.

Cuts to US intelligence services, strained relationships with allies and the terrorism threat level in the US are all major concerns for him.

"Well, having been and still the target of Iranian attention, I do think that people in the US should be concerned about that. This is a time when we should also be cooperating with our allies in terms of sharing intelligence and so on.

"And unfortunately, we're at a point where the president seems to spend more time attacking our allies than finding ways to work with them. So, if it's reducing the flow of information that would be helpful to counterterrorism, surveillance or defences, that's obviously a problem," the former ambassador to the UN said.

Mr Trump made a promise during his second term to cut "billions and billions of dollars" in government spending.

According to reports, the moves to rein in spending have affected how the Department of Homeland Security runs, resulting in less information-sharing with critical infrastructure firms on potential Iranian hacking threats.

Mr Bolton said now is "not the time" for slashing capabilities.

"The lower your capabilities, the greater the chances one of them would succeed," he said.

National security expert with Perry World House Jennifer Hendrixson White agrees with Mr Bolton, and has heard first-hand from Capitol Hill connections what it is like on the ground.

The former senior adviser to two former chairmen of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that there has been a significant effort made to reduce numbers in the intelligence community, especially on the analysis side.

She said this is a "real challenge" when the US is trying to understand its threat environment and that of its allies and partners around the world.

"Talking with contacts on Capitol Hill who are involved directly in the funding and oversight of these agencies, critical agencies to US national security. Much like a lot of the other agencies on the domestic side, these national security agencies have undergone tremendous pressure to see people leave, to have retirements or fork-in-the-road type engagements with their staff," she said.

For some in Washington, the concern is personal, and the answer is to press ahead with the military operation known as Operation Epic Fury.

Iranian Janatan Sayeh, who works as an Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, known for its "hawkish" voices, said now is the time for regime change in Iran.

But the US is also part of this equation, with its war in Iran adding to the risk of escalation.

When asked whether he thinks that the operation made the threat of terrorism in the US worse, he said that previous efforts to contain it haven’t worked.

"No matter what policy we had in place here, the regime's malign activities never changed, never halted them," he said.

"I don't even think appeasement even changed it. So, you look at what happened under Biden, that was very lax sanctions enforcement. Then you set out the maximum pressure under (the) first Trump administration, and now you have the war," Mr Sayeh said.

"Even after Operation Midnight Hammer, we did not see any change in decision-making. So, the war was really seen and continues to be viewed as the only way that we can truly neutralise the range of these threats, because so far, we have not been able to contain them," he added.

But terrorism knows no nationality, and it is a threat that can be just as homegrown as imported, according to Prof Hoffman.

"Certainly, heightened security will be at the World Cup games in the United States, Mexico, as well as Canada this coming spring and summer for the 250th anniversary of the United States' independence", Prof Hoffman said.

"But I would argue even beyond that. I think we have to be vigilant, but prudently so and flexible in our defences that would enable us to respond to this potential waterfront of threats we face."