Can a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal be agreed this week?

For weeks, Russia has toyed with US-led efforts to broker a ceasefire agreement to halt the war in Ukraine.

Russian officials have talked with their US counterparts for hours on end, agreed temporary ceasefires in March, which its forces then broke, only to make new demands as the price for stopping their country's invasion of Ukraine.

But warnings from US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Good Friday that the US will walk away from the process if progress is not made in the coming days have made Russia take notice.

Over Easter weekend, Mr Putin delivered a surprising decree, calling on Russian forces to observe a 30-hour truce.

A number of senior European officials viewed Mr Putin's surprise Easter truce as a cynical move.

French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrott called it "a marketing operation" to keep Mr Trump from getting impatient with Russia.

Both Ukraine and Russia accused each other of breaking the 30-hour ceasefire.

Then yesterday, there was more evidence of Russia’s changing tactics when Kremlin officials said Mr Putin would consider direct bilateral talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials.

If they were to take place, they would be the first direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials since talks in Istanbul in March 2022 just weeks after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion - those talks broke down because Russia stuck to its obstinate demands for a de facto Ukrainian surrender.

Another sign that a ceasefire deal might be in the offing came yesterday evening when The Financial Times reported that Mr Putin was willing to halt Russia's invasion along current frontlines.

The newspaper also reported that the Russian leader had told US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff during their talks in Moscow earlier this month that Russia could relinquish its demands to control parts of four eastern Ukrainian regions that Russia does not currently control.

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If that is the case, then it would be a major climbdown by Russia from its hardline demand for full control and international recognition of the entirety of the four regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

But what would be the Russian leader's price for this climbdown?

The Washington Post yesterday reported that the US would formally recognise Crimea as part of Russia, according to sources close to the discussions.

Such a seismic US policy reversal had been rumoured for a number of days and is bound to have been unpalatable for Ukraine and the Europeans.

Ukraine will never recognise Russian annexation of any of its territory but may agree to a ceasefire deal in return for firm security guarantees from the US.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has again shown that his country is more serious about ending the fighting, offering a 30-day pause on attacks on civilian infrastructure. Russia is yet to match that offer and overnight its drone attack on the city of Marhanets killed nine people.

Today in London, senior officials from the UK, Ukraine, the US and France will meet to discuss the proposals following a similar meeting in Paris last week that involved Germany.

The Europeans, represented mostly by the UK and France, have worked their way into the discussion process and will demand security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any settlement.

So can a ceasefire deal be reached this week?

Much will depend on how Mr Putin responds to a revised US proposal following the outcome of today's talks in London.

Mr Witkoff, who Mr Zelensky accused last week of buying into Russia’s narrative of the war, will travel to Moscow later this week to meet Mr Putin for a fourth time since March, supposedly to discuss the revised ceasefire terms.

It's unlikely that Russia’s leader wants to continue the war indefinitely.

Formal US recognition of Crimea as Russian, freezing the frontlines so Russia de facto keeps 20% of Ukrainian territory and getting US sanctions eventually eased is a deal that Mr Putin will sell to the Russian people as a victory.

And for that reason, he might just follow through on a ceasefire deal this time.

However, keeping a ceasefire in place will be another challenge.