Will Musk unfollow Trump? Here are the 6 most intriguing wagers gathering steam on betting markets.

• Online bettors are placing wagers on possible outcomes of the feud between Musk and Trump.
• The two have been embroiled in a public fight this week about the Republican tax bill.
• Bets on whether Musk will unfollow Trump or suspend his X account popped up on sites like Polymarket.

Elon Musk’s squabble with the US President has investors racing to place bets on potential outcomes.

Online betting forums like Polymarket and Kalshi saw a flurry of wagers on Thursday and Friday revolving around the billionaire and President Donald Trump, who have been publicly sparring on social media over the Republican tax and spending bill.

The feud, which started earlier this week after Musk called the sweeping GOP budget bill an “abomination”,” and culminated with Musk amplifying calls for Trump’s impeachment, represents a major turning point in their relationship — something that’s alarmed Tesla investors.

Here are some of the wildest wagers that have appeared on betting platforms this week:

1. Will Musk unfollow Trump before July?

Foto: Polymarket.com

Investors think it's unlikely. The priced-in odds of the scenario hovered around 27% on Friday on Polymarket.

2. Will Trump's X account be suspended by next Friday?

Foto: Polymarket.com

The odds that Donald Trump's X account will be suspended were initially 7.5%, but they dropped to 1% on Friday.

3. Will Musk create a new political party?

Foto: Polymarket.com

As their feud raged on Thursday, Musk created a poll on X asking if it was time to create a new political party in the US "that actually represents the 80% in the middle." By Friday, the poll had garnered more than 5 million responses, with more than 80% of users voting yes.

Bettors on Polymarket think the odds that Musk will create a new political party by June are 7%, but higher as the year goes on, rising to 21% for him to form a new party by the end of 2025.

4. Will Trump and Musk publicly reconcile by next Friday?

Foto: Polymarket.com

Musk and Trump have each signaled some openness to making amends. On X, Musk replied to a post by Bill Ackman, which suggested that the two should "make peace."

"You're not wrong," Musk said in a post.

Speaking to Politico Thursday night, Trump downplayed the public conflict to reporters, adding that his relationship with Musk was "going very well, never done better."

White House aides said that Trump and Musk had a call scheduled on Friday, Politico reported, but separate reports on Friday said that no such call had been scheduled and that Trump is "not interested" in speaking with Musk.

On Kalshi, the odds that Trump and Elon will publicly reconcile by the end of next week dropped to 14% on Friday, down from 36% earlier in the day.

5. Will Trump sue Musk this year?

Foto: Kalshi

The priced-in odds that Trump will end up suing Elon Musk this year hovered around 17% on the betting platform Kalshi.

6. Will Trump jail Musk?

Foto: Polymarket.com

One of the wildest bets—that Trump would have Musk sent to jail—had surprisingly high odds on Polymarket as the fight between Trump and Musk dragged on. The percent chance of such an outcome dropped, however, from 10.5% to 4% on Friday.

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