Fewer cancellations at LAS Tuesday, but return to normalcy could take weeks, experts say

Aviation experts say despite a congressional vote to end the government shutdown nearing, it could take weeks before flight schedules return to normal.

That’s because Federal Aviation Administration workers must sift through a 42-day backlog of work left undone, including aircraft inspections and safety checks. In addition, FAA towers were not fully staffed when the shutdown began, so the hiring process is expected to ramp up again once the House vote, currently scheduled for Wednesday, is completed and legislation is passed for President Donald Trump to sign.

In addition, airlines must reposition their aircraft after moving them around to accommodate the shutdown.

Airlines have canceled more than 9,000 flights across the U.S. since the FAA ordered flight cuts to ease demand on control towers, which are short-staffed during the federal government shutdown.

There were fewer cancellations Tuesday than in recent days, which Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy attributed to more air traffic controllers returning to work after news of a shutdown agreement.

Tuesday air traffic was reduced by 6 percent, up from the 4 percent level that began Friday. The FAA plan to reduce flights is expected to go up to 8 percent Thursday and 10 percent Friday.

Cancellations and delays

According to FlightAware, which tracks world aviation, there were 47 cancellations and 47 flight delays by midafternoon at Reid. Nationwide, there were 1,741 cancellations and 1,237 delays.

In Las Vegas, 27 of the cancellations and 35 of the delays were on flights operated by Southwest Airlines, the busiest air carrier at Reid.

A Reid representative said Tuesday that 26 arrivals and 23 departures at the airport were the result of FAA reductions. Transportation Security Administration checkpoints at Terminal 1 were operating normally, the airport official said.

On Wednesday, FlightAware already is projecting 1,074 flight cancellations nationwide, with 39 at Reid and 28 of those on Southwest. For Thursday, FlightAware projected 571 cancellations nationwide, with 17 at Reid and seven on Southwest flights.

Ripple effects

Cancellations and delays also piled up over the weekend due to ripple effects from flight cuts and severe weather. FAA air traffic chief Frank McIntosh said the agency restricted large sections of airspace over the weekend “to slow the entire country down, which forced massive cancellations and delays.”

The FAA hasn’t said when it will roll back flight limits. Duffy reinforced Tuesday that the cuts will remain — even after the shutdown ends — until safety metrics improve and staffing levels stabilize at air traffic control facilities.

Duffy has declined to share the specific safety data that prompted the flight cuts. But in a news conference at Chicago’s O’Hare airport, he cited reports of planes getting too close in the air, more runway incursions and pilot concerns about controllers’ responses.

The nationwide shortage of controllers isn’t new, but the shutdown likely made it worse, with Duffy saying that 15-20 controllers are retiring every day, and some younger controllers are leaving the profession.

And it doesn’t take many controller absences to create problems. During the shutdown, a number of controllers who were not being paid called off work as they dealt with increased stress and the need to take side jobs to cover their bills.

Former FAA air traffic control chief Mike McCormick said it is similar to when many controllers left during the pandemic because “when the stressors in the workplace become too much of a challenge then those who can will resign or retire.”

The flight restrictions upended airline operations in just a matter of days. Many planes were rerouted and are not where they’re supposed to be.

McCormick said he expects operations to recover within days, similar to after a major snowstorm.

Eric Chaffee, a Case Western Reserve professor who studies risk management, warned the disruptions could last weeks as airlines face “complex operational hurdles” and winter weather complicates recovery before Thanksgiving.

“It’s similar to if you start pulling threads out of a tapestry,” Chaffee said. “What you may find is that lots unravel in addition to what you are trying to remove.”

The pace of airline ticket sales for Thanksgiving travel has slowed as travelers reconsider flying. Aviation analytics firm Cirium said ticket sales during the busy late November season are still expected to be up over last year, but only slightly.

Hubs hurt

Hub airports in Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and the New York area have seen the bulk of the cancellations. They’ve also been plagued by long delays caused by staffing shortages in regional air traffic control centers and towers. Smaller regional airlines like SkyWest and Republic have been hit hardest because they fly many of the regional routes being dropped by the major airlines.

The head of the air traffic controllers union said controllers were not staging an organized walkout and remain committed to their jobs. However, Trump on Monday blasted those who have taken time off during the shutdown, posting on social media “get back to work, NOW!!!” He also called for docking their pay while giving $10,000 bonuses for those who stayed.

Duffy said the bonuses would be for controllers who never missed a shift during the shutdown while he may take action against those who continually failed to show up for work. He said that after the shutdown, all controllers should receive 70 percent of their pay within 48 hours.

Canceled flights and mounting delays are adding to big losses for the airlines. The lost revenue is likely to add up to “hundreds of millions of dollars a day,’’ said Greg Raiff, CEO of the Elevate Aviation Group. He expects the toll to show up when the airlines start issuing earnings warnings for the fourth quarter.

An estimated 5.2 million passengers have been affected by staffing-related delays or cancellations since the government shutdown began Oct. 1, according to Airlines for America, an industry trade group.

Food pantry still open

The food pantry that was established at Reid for the roughly 1,500 FAA, TSA and Customs and Border Protection agents will remain open until the shutdown is declared over.

The pantry, which has been open at Reid since Oct. 20, was set up in an airport conference room with food and beverage dry goods, canned food, nonperishables, paper products, bottles of water, baby items, personal hygiene products and even pet food. There also are gift cards made available to federal employee recipients.

Airport officials say they are still accepting donations from local businesses and community partners, which can be coordinated by calling the airport’s air control center at 702-261-7157.