F1 2025 predictions: Can Lando Norris finally beat Max Verstappen?

Time for talking has stopped.

Thank heavens for that after the longest build-up to a season on record, dating back to the first official all-team launch at the O2 Arena nearly a month ago.

The Australian Grand Prix on Sunday kicks off this year's 76th Formula One world championship, the first of 24 races in the final running of the current rules before a mass shake-up next season. There have been a raft of driver changes, including a certain Mr Hamilton donning red overalls.

So, it’s time for F1 Confidential’s predictions on the eve of the 2025 season.

Who will become world champion?

Close your eyes British fans, I’m plumping for Max Verstappen, by a whisker in a titanic fight that sees several teams sharing the wins (shades of the open 1982 season).

Verstappen showed last year that he does not need the best car to be crowned champion. Ask any other driver privately who is the best of them and, if they can bring themselves to admit it, they select the Dutchman.

He also holds a psychological headlock on the man who is potentially his main rival, Lando Norris, in the potent, market-leading McLaren.

Indeed, Verstappen’s aggression, his refusal to buckle, and innate race craft live menacingly in the minds of all the grid.

To top it off, I understand he is reasonably content with his Red Bull car’s potential, no matter his publicly stated caution. It is not a perfect machine but, he believes, something he can work with and his team can develop.

A fifth successive world title would be an astonishing mark of a stellar career.

Who will be the other leading contenders?

Norris is second in my imaginary rankings; Oscar Piastri third, Lewis Hamilton fourth; Charles Leclerc fifth; George Russell sixth – though he could be a title contender if Mercedes are improved; he is the most underrated superstar on the grid); Carlos Sainz seventh in a vastly improved Williams.

And constructors’ champions?

McLaren, on a roll and well-marshalled by chief executive Zak Brown and team principal Andrea Stella.

They start with the invaluable advantage of having the fastest car from the start, if testing in Bahrain was a true indicator.

They claim they not purring perfection on lower fuel, an early chink in their armour possibly.

Who’s the jury out on?

Kimi Antonelli, 18-year-old new boy at Mercedes. The Italian looks so young, which exacerbates the impression of his vulnerability.

He is hotly tipped by his employers, especially Toto Wolff, but they are invested in his success or failure.

Hope for the season?

That Williams make a decent step forward as reward for team principal James Vowles’ valiant attempts to turn around the barnacled ship.

And that Ollie Bearman builds on the promise of his cameos last year with a solid or better year at Haas.

Wooden spooners?

Sauber. Plenty to do.

Blowers' customs quip

Henry Blofeld once flew over with the F1 circus on the way to Adelaide, he to commentate on the Ashes and they to compete in the much-missed grand prix there.

Stopped at the immigration desk, Blofeld was challenged to declare if he had a criminal conviction.

‘Ah, I’m awfully sorry,’ chimed Blowers, ‘I didn’t know it was still compulsory here.’

F1's sliding doors moment

It’s astonishing to think it is five years since I left a friend at the Cricketers’ Bar in the stately Windsor hotel reciting how many Coronavirus victims were being buried in Iranian mass graves.

The 2020 Australian Grand Prix had just been cancelled, and I had managed to secure an earlier passage home than he had – though I thought the race should have gone ahead, which was a minority view.

I reasoned that a single McLaren mechanic was infected, and isolated, everyone was here anyway, and it should have been a case of play up, play up and play the game.

So began a period of jeopardy for the sport. Income dried up. McLaren, for one, put their staff on furlough, and came close to going bust.

Credit to F1’s then chief executive Chase Carey and his lieutenants for getting the show on the road so rapidly during lockdown.

Work From Home was not an option for motor racing’s continent-hopping caper, and thus the season struck up again as soon as the start of July, becoming the first international sport to do so.

It is hard to think how precarious F1 was that day in the Cricketers’ Bar given how now the paddock people have reached new highs of popularity and profit.

Don't get too comfortable, Jack

It should be a weekend of rapture for Jack Doohan but it isn’t because his first race in front of his home fans promises to be his last.

The spectre of Franco Colapinto is large in his rearview mirror, the Argentine having been brought into Alpine as a reserve driver.

He is heavily backed by sponsors from Latin America – finances that his boss, the wily old chestnut Flavio Briatore, is unlikely to spurn.

The official line is that Doohan, 22, will be given the chance to prove himself. My suspicion is that his fate is already sealed with only his contract protecting him in the short term.

Lewis' surprising admission

Lewis Hamilton was smiling and lucid during his press conference in Melbourne. But he made one surprising admission.

Asked if the Italian influence in the city was an inspiration to him now he is at Ferrari, he conceded no knowledge of the diaspora’s existence here.

Lygon Street, home of café culture, is the emblem of Italian life in Victoria’s state capital. He has never been there, he said.

But he did say he lived in a bubble, which perhaps explains the above.

Mighty Melbourne back in its rightful place

Melbourne is back to its deserved spot as the season’s opening race. Ramadan has ruled out Bahrain.

Undoubtedly, Bahrain is a fine venue – a well-organised event centred on a charming paddock. But Melbourne is the best city in the world to watch sport, certainly outside London.

Although the parched grass on Albert Park’s vast acres attests, the weather here beats Britain at this time of year.

A caveat on that sunny front lies in the forecast for rain on Sunday, which would spice things up. But as a sage observer pointed out to me wearily some years ago: ‘Have you ever been to grand prix when somebody hasn’t predicted it will rain during the race?’

Mercedes out on Max? Yeah, right

Down to St Kilda beach for breakfast with Mercedes. Toto Wolff was on stage with his three drivers – George Russell, Kimi Antonelli and reserve Valtteri Bottas – and declared his undying love for them all.

So much so that he ruled out continuing to make overtures towards Verstappen, as he did last year.

‘We need to concentrate on our driver line-up,’ said the Austrian, despite Russell’s contract expiring at the end of this year. ‘I don’t flirt outside if I’m in a good relationship.

‘So, at the moment that (a move for Verstappen) is not on any radar. I don’t plan to shift my concentration away from these guys and I want to see that George has a contract very soon, before the summer.’

Are we to believe, then, that Verstappen is completely out of the equation no matter what circumstances eventuate? I’m not entirely convinced.