Why Newcastle can pull off the ultimate finals upset over Penrith
by Craig Hamilton · Newcastle HeraldNewcastle will face Penrith on Sunday with a grand final spot up for grabs.
There are many who believe that beating the Panthers is a bridge too far and the Knights can't pull off what would be a monumental upset.
Self-belief is a powerful thing. And, at the moment, the Knights have it in spades.
You can see by the way they play that there is not a player in the Knights squad that believes the team can't win on Sunday.
For most of the season Newcastle have played with a level of confidence not seen in a Knights team for more than a decade. In the past three weeks that confidence has risen again.
Players with a dozen NRL games are playing with the poise of 250 game veterans. What Justin Holbrook has achieved with this year's team is already astonishing. Wooden spooners in 2025 and now a win away from a grand final appearance within 12 months.
Penrith are a great side and won four titles in a row before missing out last season when the Broncos defeated Melbourne in the grand final.
So, can Newcastle win on Sunday? I believe they can.
The typical gritty, tough, never give up mentality that the Knights were built on is back. Being gritty, tough and having a never, ever give up attitude won't be enough in Sydney. They are playing a team who can handle that.
Getting lucky won't be enough either.
Penrith are a side that won't beat themselves and by that, I mean they won't miss a lot of tackles and they won't make many unforced errors and gift the Knights a win.
The Knights have to beat the Panthers by playing the way the they did against the Warriors last weekend and the way they played against Souths the week before that.
In my view to beat the Panthers, the Knights are going to need 20 points at least to win. I simply can't see this game being decided in a low-scoring, risk-free manner with a scoreline around 12-6.
Both sides have strike power. The Panthers key men, Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, and Brian To'o have all have played State of Origin for NSW. Front rower Moses Leota has represented Samoa and New Zealand.
One area the Knights can dominate this weekend is in the outside backs. On current form Newcastle has a better and more dangerous back five than Penrith. This is where the Knights can cause a boil over.
At the moment I wouldn't swap any of them to slot one of the Penrith boys in.
Kalyn Ponga, Dominic Young, Greg Marzhew, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai are simply on fire at the moment, there's no other way to describe it.
Fletcher Sharpe will go head-to-head with the Panthers 5/8 Jack Cole. The form that Fletcher Sharpe is in currently, he's a bolter for Kangaroo selection. Again, no fear, supremely confident in his ability and so dangerous as a ball runner. He's a lot stronger than he appears to be as well. We know he's got speed, but he also has the ability to break tackles.
Which brings us to Nathan Cleary.
Arguably the game's best player who has been integral to the Panthers success is recent years. There have been reports in the media this week that Cleary isn't 100 per cent fit and his foot injury is worse than first thought. My information is that he has a stress related foot injury. Stress related foot injuries are often fractures. If there is a fracture he could play with it, but there is no doubt that he won't be 100 per cent fit.
Then there's the forward battle. The Knights forwards are possibly the most underrated pack in the competition. Cody Hopwood, Jermaine McEwen and Francis Manuleleua were barely known at the start of the season and they are doing exactly what Justin Holbrook needs from them at this time of year.
They more that held their own against the Warriors last week in New Zealand and are confident and firing at exactly the right time.
Add Tyson Frizell, Matt Croker and Phoenix Crossland and you've got a team that can get the job done on Sunday.
A special shout out to Crossland, the Knights hooker, who in my view was the best player on the field last week.