College Football

2025 Odds To Make CFP: Could Multiple Powerhouse Programs Miss Playoff?

What a difference this weekend will make. 

The college football regular season is over, and the College Football Playoff is (sort of) beginning to take shape. 

There are still a number of spots left to decide, many of which will become clear after championship weekend.

Like last year, this year's CFP will feature a 12-team format. Seeds No. 1 through 4 will earn first-round byes, while Nos. 5 through 12 play each other in the first round. 

However, in 2025, the top four seeds in the 12-team field will be the top-four ranked teams instead of the four highest-ranked conference championship game winners. 

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With that in mind, let's check out some of the odds for teams on the cusp of the CFP (FanDuel Sportsbook as of Dec. 4), as well as what to know about each squad. 

To Make the 2025-26 College Football Playoff

Alabama
Yes: -1600 (bet $10 to win $10.63 total)
No: +820 (bet $10 to win $92 total)

What to know: The No. 9 Crimson Tide will take on No. 3 Georgia in the SEC title game. The Bulldogs are 11-1 on the season, with their only loss coming at home back on Sept. 27 … against Alabama. That win turned out to be Bama's best on the season, and has gone a long way to offset a loss to unranked Florida State to open the season. Alabama has one more loss on the season, a 23-21 setback against then-No. 11 Oklahoma on Nov. 15. If Bama wins the SEC Championship, it is in the CFP and will get a high seed. If it loses, the door is ajar for it to be left out of the field. 

Notre Dame
Yes: -425 (bet $10 to win $12.35 total)
No: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)

What to know: Notre Dame began the season 0-2 but hasn't lost since, sitting at 10-2 with no conference title game ahead of it. However, during that 10-game win streak, its best wins came at then-No. 20 USC and then-No. 22 Pittsburgh. And those two season-opening losses? Those came against then-No. 16 Texas A&M and … at then-No. 10 Miami. Why does that matter? Well, A&M has only one loss on the season and is sure to make it to the field. Miami, however, is actually favored to miss the Playoff, likely due to two unranked losses, against Louisville and SMU, and despite its head-to-head win over the Irish. We will see how the committee decides on the Irish's fate after this weekend.

Miami (FL)
Yes: +430 (bet $10 to win $53 total)
No: -620 (bet $10 to win $11.61 total)

What to know: As you just read, yes, the Hurricanes have a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, with those unranked losses coming back to haunt them. Outside of that win over then-No. 6 ND to open the season, Miami's best wins of the season came against then-No. 18 South Florida, then-No. 18 Florida State and then-No. 22 Pittsburgh. Losing a conference tiebreaker to Duke and failing to make it to the ACC title game also stripped Miami of a chance to win its conference and essentially earn itself an automatic CFP berth. Once again, we will see how the committee decides the Hurricanes' fate in just a few days. 

BYU
Yes: +390 (bet $10 to win $49 total)
No: -550 (bet $10 to win $11.82 total)

What to know: No. 11 BYU will face No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game this weekend, and obviously, if it wins, it is in. There is one small problem, however — these two teams faced off about a month ago and the Red Raiders went up 26-0 before cruising to a 29-7 victory. Can that much change on the Cougars' side to turn that lopsided loss into a win? That defeat is BYU's only of the season, but its best win of the season was a 24-21 triumph over then-No. 22 Utah.

James Madison
Yes: +156 (bet $10 to win $25.60 total)
No: -194 (bet $10 to win $15.15 total)

What to know: The Dukes need some help from Duke. JMU cracked the CFP rankings at No. 25 on Tuesday night after being ranked in the AP Top 25 poll for four straight weeks. Two Group of Five conference teams are ranked ahead of JMU, though No. 20 North Texas (No. 24 CFP) and No. 21 Tulane (No. 20 CFP) play each other in Friday's American Conference title game for a likely win-and-in scenario. Virginia would be poised to earn the other automatic bid if it beats Duke in the ACC title game. But a Blue Devils win as a currently unranked team raises the possibility that JMU (11-1) could stand as the fifth highest-rated conference champion and squeeze the ACC out of the Playoff entirely.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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