New Champions League format: League phase hits the mark

As the league phase reaches a thrilling conclusion on Matchday 8, continued high levels of excitement and plenty still to play for mean the new format for the UEFA Champions League is emphatically hitting the mark.

When all 18 games kick off simultaneously at 21:00 CET on 29 January, 27 of the 36 teams will still have something to fight for, with everything at stake from advancing as one of the top eight teams to winning a place in the knockout phase play-offs or facing the peril of elimination. Only two of the final round of games will not affect the qualification places.

To add to the drama, teams will also be jostling for position to improve their ranking and avoid playing higher-ranked teams on their path to the final, in the knockout phase play-offs and beyond. Each game will impact another with one goal potentially making all the difference. There is no doubting the incentive to fight to the end, with clubs that finish in the top eight avoiding the jeopardy of the knockout phase play-offs and securing home advantage for the last 16.

The new format was six years in the making, with no shortage of mathematical models, algorithms and detailed planning behind its inception to make it as entertaining as possible. Still, for all the meticulous preparation and thousands of simulations, ultimately its success would only ever be judged on the field of play.

Now, as the league phase nears its climax, it is clear that so far the changes are delivering on our commitment to deliver increased fairness and a richer variety of opponents, a more dynamic competition, greater balance, unpredictability and matches with sporting interest as well as more clashes between the top teams.

Rollercoaster ride

There has been plenty of movement throughout the league phase, with teams rising or falling with virtually every result. Borussia Dortmund, last year's finalists, were fifth after Matchday 1, went top following their comprehensive 7-1 win over Celtic on Matchday 2, then dropped to 11th, only to climb back to fourth after Matchday 5. Going into their final game against Shakhtar Donetsk they lie 14th but still have an eye on a top-eight finish and the prize of automatic qualification for the last 16.

In fact, ahead of the eighth round of league phase matches, only three of the nine top-seeded teams from the Monaco draw in August – Liverpool, Barcelona and Inter – sit in one of the coveted top eight spots in the table, a clear indicator of the new format's fluidity. Three teams from Pot 4 – Aston Villa, Monaco and Brest – are already assured of a knockout berth and remain well within reach of a top-eight finish. Liverpool may have enjoyed their view from the summit for most of the league phase, but for the majority of teams it has been a rollercoaster ride. TV audiences have remained consistently high throughout individual games, the quickly changeable nature of the league table and the fact that every goal matters keeping viewers glued to final whistle.

Expect the unexpected

Who would have thought that with one game left to play in the league phase, 2023 champions Manchester City would need a win at home to Club Brugge just to sneak into the top 24 to make the knockout phase play-offs? Or that titleholders Real Madrid, currently 16th, would have a fight on their hands to grab one of the top eight seeded spots?

As some of the big names have faltered, lesser lights have seized the spotlight. French newcomers Brest, for example, have turned heads with their spectacular first season at European football's top table and are already guaranteed a place in the knockout phase play-offs. It suggests the new format offers greater opportunity for upsets, with more variety in fixtures and the fact that teams are playing opponents from the same seeding pot giving them more opportunity to win points.

In the old group stage, where teams played each other twice, there were 48 different match-ups; with the new 36-club league phase, each team plays eight different opponents amounting to 144 unique matches. We have already seen many high-scoring thrillers and implausible comebacks – expect the unexpected could be the new league phase's catchphrase.

Heavyweight contests

There has been an increase in big clashes in the early stages of the competition as teams from Pots 1 and 2 respectively go head-to-head against one another in the league phase. We have been treated to rematches of four of the past five Champions League finals as well as some other notable reruns. Aston Villa marked the return of European Cup action to a pulsating Villa Park by beating Bayern München, who they defeated in the 1982 showpiece, and AC Milan and Liverpool – final opponents in 2005 and 2007 – locked horns again.

"We are coming up against probably tougher teams than you normally would in a group stage format. Usually you would find these games in the quarter-finals or semi-finals."

Declan Rice, Arsenal midfielder

There has also been an increase in goals per match. Prior to this season, the Champions League campaign with the most goals per match in the group stage was in 2019/20, with 3.21 on average. Going into Matchday 8, the average this term is 3.22.

Competitive streak

Enhancing the competition's competitive balance lay at the heart of the new format's design. Put simply, the changes have ensured there are more competitive matches between teams of similar strength. At the same time, the new system used at the league phase draw has created a fairer distribution of opponents.

Under the new format, the fact that teams can be drawn against opponents from the same pot ensures greater balance and improved chances of the lower-seeded teams picking up points. In 2022/23, for example, when Viktoria Plzeň battled valiantly against their group rivals Bayern, Inter and Barcelona but came away with six losses, the average coefficient of their opponents was 53.5 points higher than the team with the 'easiest' schedule, Chelsea. This season, the biggest average gap between the highest and lowest-ranked opponents for any league phase team is just 19 coefficient points. This has led to a far more even mix of teams from different draw pots dotted across the league table. After six matchdays, the Pot 4 teams had improved their average point tally by two compared to the final round of group stage matches last season.

"This format forces us to win. Before many draws would have been enough, but now we have to win. Draws are only good for you up to a certain point, so we will have to compete hard. It requires us to go out and win."

Diego Simeone, Atlético de Madrid coach

Take your seats

There is still everything to play for and much to learn from the new league format before we draw any final conclusions. But for now, take your seat – either at a game or at home on the sofa – and enjoy what promises to be an incredible finale.