Leinster want excitement but Glasgow can make it a nervy day at the Aviva

IT’S STRANGE TO watch a team come through a high-stakes knock-out game where much of the post-match focuses on the perceived sense of apathy around it all.

This was the experience of covering Leinster’s URC quarter-final defeat of Scarlets seven days ago.

The sticking point was the attendance figure of 12,879 – by no means a miserable crowd, but certainly one which feels miserable when housed inside a near-52,000 capacity stadium.

Leo Cullen’s post-match pleas for the club to collectively feel ‘excitement’ about reaching another semi-final today [v Glasgow, KO 2.45pm, RTÉ 2/Premier Sports/URC TV] and for fans to “please turn out in force” at the Aviva Stadium brought a somewhat bizarre end to the occasion.

It’s an unusual place for a club to find themselves when two games out from potentially lifting a trophy. But how excited should those Leinster fans actually feel?

On the face of it this should be sizing up as a massive few weeks. Leinster have not won the URC since the competition was rebranded and their last trophy came four years ago – a Pro14 final win over Munster, played behind closed doors at the RDS due to the pandemic. The opportunity to see this group of players lift silverware should be all the excitement needed, with the bonus of potentially watching them do that on home soil in Dublin an added incentive. 

Yet there is no escaping the feeling the URC is very much a secondary prize to the Champions Cup, a competition Leinster have become increasingly obsessed with capturing again since last doing so in 2018.

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The province themselves have played a central part in this. Players have spoken about the Champions Cup being the competition they judge themselves off. It’s also been illustrated in how Leinster have managed their seasons. Think back to the 2023 URC semi-final, where a Munster side desperate for a trophy capitalised as Leinster kept a host of frontliners on ice, given the game fell a week before their Champions Cup final date with La Rochelle.

Even this season, where there has appeared to be a greater desire to get over the line in the URC, the big hitters have been largely held back for European Cup action. The real prize. Captain Caelan Doris featured in four URC games before injury ended his season last month. Before last weekend, Jamison Gibson-Park had started four URC games across the campaign, the most recent of which came back in October. Sam Prendergast started five of the 18 regular-season URC games. Andrew Porter had featured in eight, starting three. Hugo Keenan played in five (all starts), Josh van der Flier six (five starts). The list goes on.

Leinster are right to be aiming high and being clear in their desire to win the Champions Cup, but perhaps a better balance could be struck. The timing of the two competitions’ run-ins is also damaging, with the Champions Cup semi-final loss to Northampton Saints always going to take the enthusiasm out of the URC knock-outs. 

Leinster will have an improved crowd at the Aviva today, hoping to hit the 15,000 mark, but the upper tier will remain closed (as was always the plan). It should also be noted this is not too far off what Leinster typically attract for these games: 9,346 for a 2022 quarter-final v Glasgow at the RDS, 11,565 for the resulting semi-final v the Bulls, 14,642 for the May 2023 quarter against the Sharks at the Aviva, over 26,000 for the Aviva semi-final loss to Munster, and 18,000 for a June 2024 quarter-final against Ulster at the Aviva.

Yet it all comes in the context of the massive crowds Leinster have been able to attract over recent seasons. The province have typically been excellent at generating interest in their big home games – selling out Croke Park twice over the last year, bringing 55,000 fans there for the Champions Cup clash with Harlequins and regularly drawing large crowds to the Aviva for European games.

The elongated rugby season doesn’t help, but it will be interesting to see what type of numbers Leinster could attract should they reach the URC final, which would be held in Croke Park against South African opposition (either the Bulls or Sharks) this day next week.

Not that their passage to that final is by any means a given. Leinster cannot expect to face the Glasgow team so comprehensively dismissed in their Champions Cup meeting earlier this year, nor the one that came up short at the Aviva just a few weeks ago. The defending URC champions will come to Dublin sensing opportunity and carrying the momentum of their impressive last-eight win against the Stormers.

With only 34% of the territory, Glasgow hit for five tries and a total of 36 points, clocking up 17 clean breaks and 40 defenders beaten. They are punchy, incisive and inventive in attack. This is best epitomised in their brilliant centre Sione Tuipulotu, who shifts to the 13 jersey today, and is hitting form right in time for the Lions tour after an injury-disrupted season.

And Leinster are clearly not firing on all cylinders. Their defence was sloppy against Scarlets and their attack struggled for cohesion, while still piecing together some wonderfully-worked tries. 

Garry Ringrose remains absent, Josh van der Flier misses out with injury while Hugo Keenan also drops out of the 23. The knock-on effect is three changes to the starting XV: Tommy O’Brien on the wing as Jimmy O’Brien moves to fullback, Dan Sheehan coming in at hooker following his game-changing impact off the bench, and Scott Penny replacing Van der Flier at openside. Throw in the absences of Caelan Doris, Tadhg Furlong and Robbie Henshaw, and there’s a core of senior players watching this one from the sidelines. 

Leinster should still have enough to book their place in next week’s final, but the margin for error has narrowed again.   

LEINSTER: Jimmy O’Brien; Tommy O’Brien, Jamie Osborne, Jordie Barrett, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Thomas Clarkson; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Ryan Baird, Scott Penny, Jack Conan (capt).

Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Jack Boyle, Rabah Slimani, RG Snyman, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Ciarán Frawley.

GLASGOW: Josh McKay; Kyle Steyn (capt), Sione Tuipulotu, Tom Jordan, Kyle Rowe, Adam Hastings, George Horne; Jamie Bhatti, Gregor Hiddleston, Fin Richardson; Alex Samuel, Scott Cummings; Euan Ferrie, Rory Darge, Henco Venter.

Replacements: Johnny Matthews, Rory Sutherland, Sam Talakai, Max Williamson, Jack Mann, Macenzzie Duncan, Stafford McDowall, Jamie Dobie.

Referee: Andrea Piardi [FIR]