Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 316
by Andrew Richardson · MMAmania.comAndrew Richardson is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif., providing MMAmania.com (and its readers) with expert technical fighter breakdowns, insight and analysis you can't get anywhere else.
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Bantamweight bitter rivals Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison will collide this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey at UFC 316.
Through sheer force of will, Pena is a two-time UFC champion. Perhaps equally impressive is that her second title “win” came after 12 years on UFC’s roster. At 35 years of age, Pena remains the same hard-nosed, cardio-first fighter as ever, but she’ll have to weather a monstrous storm here.
Harrison isn’t just an Olympic gold medalist in Judo, she’s probably the strongest female fighter to ever compete at 135 pounds. Her physicality is a serious problem for any opponent, and she’s bringing a wealth of championship experience into her first UFC title fight.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Pena vs. Harrison Betting Odds
- Julianna Pena victory: +455
- Julianna Pena via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
- Julianna Pena via submission: +1200
- Julianna Pena via decision: +1100
- Kayla Harrison victory: -625
- Kayla Harrison via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Kayla Harrison via submission: +140
- Kayla Harrison via decision: +215
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Pena Wins
Pena is scrappy as a junkyard dog. She’s never been the best at anything — though her top game and submissions are the clear standouts in his skill set — but Pena is willing to dig deeper than most of her peers and push a harder to pace. More often than not, it works out in her favor.
I find the odds here a little disrespectful. This is a 25-minute fight, and we’ve seen Harrison fatigue in the past. Already, there’s a potential path to victory for the champion. She doesn’t have to be better than Harrison anywhere, she just has to get the Judoka feeling every ounce of that massive weight cut.
And those final 16 ounces to make championship weight looked like they visibly hurt.
The only goal of “The Venezuelan Vixen” should be to force Harrison to expend energy. She took Amanda Nunes’ punches without taking a nap, so why not stand-and-bang with Harrison? She’ll get taken down at some point, sure, but Nunes has to make her foe work for it, then immediately start kicking at her foe’s hips like an insane person. Pena wants a chaotic, frantic fight, because that’s the kind of match up that will have Harrison gasping for air by round four.
When that happens, Pena knows how to take advantage.
How Harrison Wins
Harrison is obviously the more skilled fighter here. Her striking remains meat-and-potatoes, but at least her shot selection is intelligent. In addition, she’s done really well to integrate wall wrestling and double legs into her Judo takedowns, making for a more well-rounded mixed martial arts (MMA) wrestling attack.
Pena wins most of her fights by taking her opponents down, but the secret here is that she’s not that hard to take down either. In fact, her takedown defense rating stands at an abysmal 23 percent. Harrison should be able to throw Pena on her ready almost at will, and from that point forward, it becomes a question of energy management.
Pena is tough and can take a beating. Harrison has to make sure to advance positionally and try to gain a checkmate position before really unleashing ground strikes or attacking submissions. Small chipping shots are fine of course, but Harrison doesn’t want to gas herself out and lose to a Homer Simpson-style comeback because she got overeager trying to do damage from closed guard.
A bit of patience will go a long way.
Pena vs. Harrison Prediction
I think there’s a reasonable shot that Pena outlasts Harrison and takes over late. I’m not going to pick it, but I would personally list Harrison as like a -250 favorite ... which obviously means I’m picking her here in a head-to-head prediction.
The gap in skill and physicality is too massive. Harrison just has to manage her gas tank, and she should win easily. Even if she goes too hard early and gasses later on, it’s not like Pena is some extraordinary finisher. If a gassed out Harrison could survive 155-pound Larissa Pacheco’s championship rounds surge, I’m not that worried about Pena scoring the late finish.
“Lioness” vs. Olympic Judo round two, let’s go!
Prediction: Harrison via decision
LIVE! Watch UFC 316 PPV On ESPN+ Here!
CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE-DIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., June 7, 2025, with a championship doubleheader headlining UFC 316 from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. In UFC 316’s PPV main event, Bantamweight roost-ruler, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his title against former division champion, Sean O’Malley, in a highly-anticipated five-round rematch. UFC 316’s PPV co-main event features women’s Bantamweight titleholder, Julianna Pena, facing off against two-time Olympic gold medalist, Kayla Harrison, in a thrilling five-round clash. UFC 316 will also showcase a 135-pound showdown between Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista, as well as a Welterweight bout pitting Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland and much more! UFC 316’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 8 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
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