Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Andrew Richardson is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif., providing MMAmania.com (and its readers) with expert technical fighter breakdowns, insight and analysis you can't get anywhere else.

Social media star and controversial boxing sensation, Jake Paul, will throw down opposite boxing royalty, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, in a Cruiserweight contest TONIGHT (Sat., June 28, 2025) from Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

Fresh off his boring (but widely viewed) spectacle match against Mike Tyson, Paul is trying to make another big move. I’m not sure there’s a ton of excitement about Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. specifically as an opponent — particularly since Anderson Silva already beat him four years ago — but there’s a carrot at the end of the stick. Paul is to be ranked with a victory, which might help legitimize him in the eyes of ... somebody? Chavez Jr., conversely, is the latest older fighter to pull a lottery ticket. He’ll be receiving his biggest paycheck in years (if not ever) at the cost of being the older, smaller man in this contest. Unless Chavez Jr. can show up motivated and turn back the clock in a major way, he’ll end up on the wrong end of the highlight reel.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Paul vs. Chavez Jr Betting Odds

• Jake Paul victory: -575
• Jake Paul via TKO/KO/DQ: +155
• Jake Paul via decision: -110
• Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. victory: +400
• Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
• Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. via decision: +1000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Paul Wins

Jake Paul has put a lot of work into becoming a better boxer. He started out as an athletic former wrestler with a right hand — MMA fans should know how that relationship develops — but has taken pains to develop his lead hand, defense, and overall strategy. Of course, all those things are easier to implement against older, smaller opposition, but his general improvement and dedication are still obvious.

In this match up, Paul will be trying to impose his size and power on a pressure fighter. That’s not an unusual match up for Paul given his history with Nate Diaz and Mike Perry, though Chavez Jr. should bring a little more tact to that strategy than the cage brawlers.

In such match ups, Paul actually maintains his range pretty well. He works behind the jab, doubles it up, and takes it to the body. He keeps his feet moving. If his opponent really tries to force the issue, Paul can set his feet and fire that right hand.

The strategy has worked well before, and it probably will again.

How Chavez Jr Wins

Chavez Jr. is a pressure fighter, a boxer who aims to get inside, hit the body, and throw punches-in-bunches. He’s never been the most consistent about showing up to fight in optimum shape, which can make that style extremely difficult to employ.

Assuming Chavez Jr. does show up motivated, he can find success here. He’s much better at jabbing-and-slipping his way into close quarters than the aforementioned Perry and Diaz, meaning he should be able to find his way into the pocket more often than they managed. If that’s the case, he can actually build success.

We have seen Paul slow down in previous fights. If Chavez Jr. can close distance and start hitting Paul with that left hook to the liver, his size advantage will be much less helpful. As Paul’s feet slow and he’s less able to throw back, Chavez can pull ahead in the numbers game and make a statement about where Paul belongs in the boxing world.

Paul vs. Chavez Jr Prediction

Yeah, it’s really hard to go against the bigger, younger fighter who probably wants the victory more. Paul hits hard enough to deter Chavez Jr. from his pressure, and we can’t really trust that Chavez Jr. has the gas tank to employ that style anyway. Also, I don’t want to go full match up math, but there’s something to the idea that Anderson Silva beat up Chavez Jr., and Paul already beat up “The Spider.” A few years later, I’m struggling to see why Chavez Jr. would suddenly be better and Paul is now worse.

The beats-up-old-men train keeps rolling. Next stop, Anaheim!

Prediction: Jake Paul via decision