Carlos Prates vs. Ian Machado Garry: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Kansas City
by Andrew Richardson · MMAmania.comAndrew Richardson is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Calif., providing MMAmania.com (and its readers) with expert technical fighter breakdowns, insight and analysis you can't get anywhere else.
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight strikers Carlos Prates vs. Ian Machado Garry will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., April 26, 2025) inside T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., at UFC Kansas City.
Prates stormed onto UFC’s scene just last year, smashing four straight opponents inside just 10 months to immediately announce himself as a major problem for the Welterweight division. He’s taking another big step up in competition here opposite the battle-tested Garry, who nearly ended Shavkat Rakhmonov’s undefeated run in his last appearance. At 27 years of age, Garry is already a highly-ranked contender, likely to be a fixture of the Top 10 for years to come. He’s taken a big gamble here, however, stepping up to face the Brazilian slugger on rather short notice in the hopes of jumping back into the title picture straight away.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Prates vs. Garry Betting Odds
- Carles Prates victory: +110
- Carles Prates via TKO/KO/DQ: +160
- Carles Prates via submission: +1800
- Carles Prates via decision: +750
- Ian Garry victory: -130
- Ian Garry via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
- Ian Garry via submission: +600
- Ian Garry via decision: +225
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Prates Wins
As one might expect of a man with MUAY THAI inked across his chest, Prates is a nasty striker. He’s really long for the Welterweight class yet has huge power, and he really excels at stalking his opponent to line up that left hand.
Smart pressure will absolutely be the key here. I expect Garry to employ a kick-and-clinch game plan, meaning he’s going to avoid the pocket. The Irish fighter will aim to be all the way in or all the way out, because nobody wants to trade power shots with Prates right now. Fortunately, Prates should have some solutions to that approach as a striker with many years of experience.
Prates will be stalking Garry, but he doesn’t have to rush and give up easy takedown entries. Instead, I’d like to see the Brazilian poking long jabs at Garry and showing lots of feints. If he can convince Garry to start circling, he can likely find success in kicking at the trail leg, a la Mauricio Rua vs. Lyoto Machida. Whenever Garry does look to clinch, that’s another gold opportunity to frame and fire in combination.
Patience will be big here. Prates has five rounds to get to Garry, so if he’s content to work on the more easily available targets first, his heavier punches will start to line up more over time.
How Garry Wins
Garry is an undeniably slick fighter. A very technical kickboxer, Garry excels at managing range and scoring points at distance, but he also can really hurt his opposition on the counter if they don’t respect his power. In addition, he’s shown on more than one occasion to be a very solid wrestler and grappler.
Mixing all those skills together will be necessary here. Garry has the tools to strike with Prates, but I don’t think he wins a pure kickboxing match. He’s certainly good enough to get Prates’ feet planted and trading, however, at which point it’s a great time to duck into the clinch and start working for trips.
In previous fights, Prates has shown to be a slow starter — I know that sounds like a crazy statement given his first-round knockout wins, but he does like to settle into fight. Garry might want to take advantage by pushing his grappling edge early and trying to build a lead. If he can force Prates to lose a lot of energy (if not the round outright) by wrestling, the Brazilian will be less dangerous as the fight wears on.
Taking away a bit of that snap would be really helpful in the long run.
Prates vs. Garry Prediction
I’m not picking against a Fighting Nerd right now.
More to the point, Garry struggled against the last elite kickboxer he faced in Michael Page. He was getting touched up and outclassed on the feet until his jiu-jitsu bailed him out. Good for Garry for mixing the arts, but Prates is not a 38-year-old who never learned how to wrestle. He’s in his prime with a great team behind him and should be well-equipped to keep this dance upright.
Sooner or later, Prates will land hard, and Garry will realize he wants nothing to do with the Brazilian on the feet. When the takedown doesn’t come immediately after that exchange, “The Nightmare” really begins.
Prediction: Prates via knockout
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WELTERWEIGHT WAR! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., for an electrifying main event clash on April 26, 2025. Irish Welterweight star, Ian Machado Garry, takes on surging Brazilian finisher, Carlos Prates, in a high-stakes, five-round showdown. In UFC KC’s co-main event, former Light Heavyweight title challenger, Anthony Smith, faces off against the hard-hitting Zhang Mingyang, promising an explosive battle in the 205-pound division.
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