One Reason Pep Guardiola's 'Relegation Promise' Is A Lie

The sense of jeopardy around Pep Guardiola's Manchester City contract renewal was generated not by anything on the pitch but by events in the courtroom.

Continuing its headline theme that omits quite significant context to generate more intrigue, the BBC chose "I will be here"—Guardiola's relegation promise to Man City—to summarise the Catalan's first press conference following his two-year contract extension.

When examining their copy, it was clear Guardiola's exchange with the media was far from the 'relegation promise' the headline claimed.

The Manchester City manager was answering a question about the 115 charges brought by the Premier League related to financial rule breaches, challenging the assumption of guilt and referring to old statements.

"I said that six months ago. You have my interviews," he replied when asked about what would happen if the club was demoted.

"I said when all the clubs accused us of doing something wrong and people say 'what happens if we are relegated?' I will be here.

"I don't know the position they are going to bring us, the Conference? [But] next year we will come up and come up and come back to the Premier League.

"I knew it then; I feel it now."

The Catalan went on to reference the presumption of guilt he often feels has exuded from the huddled masses of journalists before pointing out that a run of four straight defeats was of far greater priority for the man in the manager's chair.

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"Seventy-five per cent of the clubs want it because I know what they do behind the scenes and this sort of stuff. But I don't live with it, I live with the four defeats, what I have to do. There are lawyers on both sides. I don't think about it."

Guardiola is right about the giddy anticipation among rivals that the dominant force in English soccer over the past decade might be about to be dismissed in one swift blow.

The stranglehold of four successive titles and six championships in seven years can sometimes feel unbreakable.

This dynasty is entirely Guardiola's; therefore, news that he intends to extend his stay in England past the ten-year mark is terrible news for opponents.

But the media's use of the tired relegation narrative to generate jeopardy misses a broader, more interesting question about what drove the Catalan to commit more emphatically than his last two deals.

Sir Alex Ferguson's Family Intervention

It's remarkable to look back on it now, but Guardiola's signing of a three-year contract with City in 2018 was seen as a seismic commitment.

At that stage of his managerial career, the decision to spend five years with one side far outstripped his previous jobs at Barcelona and Bayern Munich.

Due to his taking an unusual sabbatical after four glorious seasons in Spain, the narrative that Guardiola is an incredible coach who burns out quickly developed.

This was not helped by his spending only three seasons in Bavaria, a spell beset by the same internal wranglings that dogged his time at Barcelona.

Although he has remained in Manchester for eight years since that 2018 deal was signed, most commitments have often been on 1+1 contract terms, where both parties can break the deal midway through.

It's given the sense that Guardiola might be about to depart.

This current deal is shorn of that clause, and the Catalan seems more keen to fight than ever.

So what changed?

Well, somewhat flippantly, Guardiola suggested that the run of poor form renewed his hunger for the fight.

"I felt I could not leave now. Maybe the four defeats was why," Guardiola told Manchester City's official site.

"I think we deserve, after four defeats in a row, to bounce back and try to turn the situation. I think we deserve to be here. I am not arrogant to say, but it's the truth."

As strange as it might sound, there is a strong case that immediate circumstances have a far more significant factor in these decisions than those outside the world of elite sports like to believe.

Sir Alex Ferguson had planned to retire in 2002 and, like Guardiola, was in a position where he'd conquered almost everything that he could have dreamed of. The club had just won three Premier League titles on the bounce, a streak that began with them capturing the Treble.

But as the Scotsman's final season reached its halfway point, things were more rocky than ever during his tenure.

A poor run of form in late November and early December, including three back-to-back losses against Arsenal, Chelsea, and West Ham United, left them adrift in the title race.

Big-money signings Diego Forlán and Juan Sebastian Veron were both struggling, and the lack of a reliable goalkeeper was really being felt.

Ferguson tells it that his family intervened on his behalf during the festive period.

"On the sofa that night of Christmas Day 2001, I had nodded off while watching television. In the kitchen, a mutiny was brewing," he wrote in his 2013 autobiography.

"The traditional assembly room of our family home was the scene of a discussion that would change each of our lives.

"The chief rebel [my wife Cathy] came in and kicked my foot to wake me. In the frame of the door, I could pick out three figures; all my sons lined up for maximum solidarity.

"We've just had a meeting,' Cathy said. 'We've decided you're not retiring'."

That season, United finished with no silverware, but it gained something far more valuable: Ferguson's long-term commitment. Ferguson spent the next five years building a fresh dynasty. He signed youngsters Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney and laid the groundwork that would culminate in another Champions League three-peat success.

Had United cruised through that season, you have to wonder whether Ferguson would have been accosted by his family.

This is why the relegation promise story is a lie. Guardiola's own words explain it: he doesn't think of the things in the future he can't control; he focuses on the moment. But that doesn't make quite a clickable headline for the BBC.