Opta projections place Ghana among outsiders for 2026 World Cup success

Sports data platform Opta has released statistical projections for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, offering an early picture of how the tournament could unfold when it kicks off across the United States, Canada and Mexico.
For the first time in history, the competition will feature an expanded 48-team format. Ghana, who will be making their fifth appearance at the global showpiece, are among the African representatives heading into the tournament.
However, the numbers suggest a difficult path ahead for the Black Stars. Opta ranks Ghana 73rd in the world, the lowest among the 10 African teams qualified for the tournament.
The projections also place Ghana among the least likely sides to mount a deep run. The model gives the Black Stars a 6.8% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, while their chances of making the final stand at just 0.7%. Their probability of lifting the trophy is even slimmer at 0.2%.
At the other end of the spectrum, Spain lead the overall predictions with a 16% chance of winning the title. France, runners-up in 2022, follow with 13%, while defending champions Argentina complete the top three with an 11.2% chance of retaining the crown.

Ghana have been drawn in Group L alongside Panama, England and Croatia, setting up a challenging group-stage campaign.
The Black Stars will open their tournament against Panama on June 17 at BMO Field, before facing England on June 23 at Gillette Stadium. They will conclude their group fixtures against Croatia on June 27.