How many points Chelsea need for Champions League qualification confirmed after top five drama

The picture in the top five could not be much clearer for Chelsea. Their defeat to Newcastle United on Sunday afternoon at St James' Park means that anything other than two wins from the final two Premier League games will leave them open to dropping out of the top five.

Goals from Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes almost 90 minutes apart condemned Enzo Maresca's side to a defeat which puts added pressure on their remaining fixtures. Any advantage gained from beating Liverpool at Stamford Bridge last weekend has now been wiped out.

After Manchester City could only draw to Southampton on Saturday, Chelsea knew they could have ended the day in third and just one point behind Arsenal, who still had to travel to Liverpool in the late kick-off. However, a slow start and Nicolas Jackson's red card after 35 minutes meant that getting anything was always a tough ask.

Maresca now knows that there is no room for error with Manchester United set to visit SW6 on Friday. Chelsea then journey to Nottingham Forest on the last day.

Forest themselves are hurting after only managing a point at home to Leicester City. They recovered from 1-0 down but conceded late on to throw away a chance of overtaking Chelsea. The picture is now Newcastle in third on 66 points (+23 goal difference), City a place back on 65 (+24), Chelsea two adrift in fifth (+19) with Villa sixth, also on 63 points (+7). Forest are now seventh, a Conference League space, with 62 and a +12 goal difference.

So what does this all mean? Well, due to Newcastle's goal difference advantage over Villa, they would be almost certain to finish in the top five qualifying for the Champions League, with three points. The most Villa can get to now is 69 but they would have to bridge a 16-goal gap which is more than highly unlikely.

With Manchester United and Tottenham left for Unai Emery's side, they do have favourable fixtures for getting two wins. Neither Spurs or United have anything to play for with the Europa League on their mind. Both lost on Sunday and they sit 17th and 16th, above the relegation zone only because those below them are historically bad.

Newcastle, therefore, are almost in the clear. They face Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium next weekend, though, which is not an easy game - even if they might be without Declan Rice and are lacking in confidence. Arsenal are looking to recover from their Champions League semi-final exit and don't want to lose grip of second.

As for City, they host Bournemouth after the FA Cup final so will be playing catch-up with the rest. They still need four points (a win and a draw) to get to the 69 points Villa can reach. Again, their goal difference is essentially an extra point at this stage. If Villa drop any points then City will be home and dry with just one win.

The same goes for Chelsea. That means that if Maresca's side can beat United and Forest, they could be extremely confident of finishing in the top five. If Villa fail to win either of their last two games then Chelsea could get away with a draw against Forest, who would need a win themselves to get in.

Forest have West Ham next and must surely get get six points (which includes beating Chelsea) to get into the top five. Unless Villa drop the ball massively, it looks hard for both Chelsea and Forest to finish in the top five.

A scenario does exist where a draw benefits both on the last day, but only if City and Villa drop points. If Chelsea and Forest were to win next weekend and Villa lost then it would require at least a seven-goal swing on goal difference for Villa to overtake Forest on Sunday, May 25, even with a draw at the City Ground.

The good news for Chelsea is that their destiny is in their own hands. The bad news is that they will need to go away to a direct rival and win to ensure a place in the Champions League, and that is something they have not done all season. Either way, the equation is simple.

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