How Chelsea can confirm Champions League qualification this week as dream scenario revealed

Chelsea's defeat at Newcastle United may well have complicated their journey towards Champions League football but it doesn't have to be that case for long. In fact, for their place to be all-but secured, they only need to play once more.

Although the gap from seventh (Nottingham Forest) to third (Manchester City) is only three points, everything can change and have a look of finality about it by the end of next weekend. Given that Chelsea host Manchester United, it is an appealing prospect.

Enzo Maresca's side know that the only way to ensure a finish in the top five is to win their final two games but they won't need that much if their rivals continue to drop points. At the weekend, Forest and City both failed to win as well.

With the FA Cup taking centre stage for City on Saturday, Chelsea could be third by the time Newcastle or City next play. That would mean beating United by five goals at Stamford Bridge but weirder things have happened.

Ruben Amorim's men are 16th and just lost to West Ham, who had been sinking under Graham Potter with four points from their previous eight games. They have all their focus on the Europa League final and have nothing to play for but pride at SW6. That hasn't been enough reason to raise their domestic game for months, so Chelsea will hope that it remains that way for at least another five days.

Even if Chelsea cannot pummel United in their last home match of the season, they will still be above City with a win. Pep Guardiola's team first have to navigate a tricky Crystal Palace task at Wembley Stadium before hosting Bournemouth.

The Cherries have fallen out of European contention now but did give it a good go against Villa. If they can raise their game here then City will not have it easy.

So yes, Chelsea could go from a damaging defeat to being third (or at least fourth) before either of the two closest teams above them play next. That would all be gloss on the situation, though. What really matters is being better than whoever comes sixth.

Villa look the most likely competitors and have now won four of their last five in the league and eight out of 10 stretching back to beating Chelsea in late February. They also have the easiest pair of games left.

At the start of the season, ending with the visit of Spurs and a trip to Old Trafford would have been daunting but now it is an open invitation to win. There is an argument that even the relegated trio are showing more fight than Tottenham and United right now.

However, Chelsea can hope that their historic rivals do them a favour nonetheless. If Villa were to somehow lose to Tottenham (also on Friday night so that the Europa League finalists have the same amount of rest days) then a win for Chelsea on the same night would mean they do not have to beat Forest anymore.

In this scenario, Chelsea would be on 66 points and have a goal difference advantage of at least 14 to be overturned, that is essentially another point. Villa could reach 66 themselves if they were then to beat United but would need a practically impossible margin of winning to overtake Chelsea.

This would only leave Forest, therefore. They are a point behind Villa and Chelsea already know that if they do win against United that they will have to take three points at home on the final day.

For Chelsea, if Forest were to lose to West Ham (and Nuno Espirito Santo's men are showing signs of serious fatigue and cracking under the pressure) then the job would be done. To put it simply, if Villa and Forest lose next weekend and Chelsea win then a place in the top five is practically assured (as long as the goal difference swing does not happen).

If Chelsea win, Villa lose to Tottenham, and Forest only draw to West Ham, then a point at the City Ground would also be enough for Chelsea on the final day. In that reality, Forest would also have to win themselves to have any chance of getting fifth.

With two more gameweeks of the season to play, there are more twists and turns left here.

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