Arsenal Champions League last-16 fixture reality as title race impact laid bare
by Tom Coley · football.londonNever will an international break have looked so appealing to Arsenal. By the time mid-March comes around, Mikel Arteta's warm-weather training camp may well feel like a lifetime ago, such is the schedule lying ahead of his team now.
After Friday's Champions League draw confirmed a two-legged tie with Dutch outfit PSV Eindhoven, Arsenal can plan ahead for the period to come. In the little under four weeks between now and March 17, when players will leave to join their country for action for the first time since November, there are six games to be completed.
Although that is fairly standard for an elite club and it is nothing that Arsenal haven't already faced this season, the magnitude of those fixtures and the intensity could define how successful Arteta's year is. Factor in the depleted squad and it becomes an even more important stretch.
Arsenal are already working without Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus for the remainder of the campaign. Takehiro Tomiyasu has hardly been available in another injury-hit season himself and will also be out until way beyond May.
The returns of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are not expected until after the international break, either. It piles a lot of weight and burden on an already small squad.
They will now have to deal with the challenges of a Premier League title race which has new life in it following Liverpool's recent slip-ups, and also European commitments. What this creates is a packed 35 days for Arteta.
Starting with this weekend, his team welcomes West Ham, where they are hopeful of cutting the gap at the top of the league down to five points. Liverpool can extend that back to eight on Sunday regardless as they face Manchester City. Arsenal do have a game in hand, though, and will be keen to ramp up the pressure.
Arteta then takes his squad to the City Ground in midweek for a tough challenge away to Nottingham Forest. The match is one of the hardest left this season given Forest's lofty position in the table and just one defeat in their last nine at home, including a draw against Liverpool and wins against Spurs and Aston Villa - plus a 7-0 thrashing of Brighton.
Should Nuno Espirito Santo claim victory on Wednesday then his team would be just three points behind in third. A win for Arsenal opens up a sizeable nine point chasm, though, and would drop Forest back into the midst of a top-four challenge, especially with Manchester City, Bournemouth, and Chelsea hot on their heels.
Arsenal's FA Cup exit last month means that they will then have a full seven days to rest before heading to the Netherlands. They visit PSV in the Champions League last-16 first leg away from home due to being one of the eight seeded sides in the competition following an impressive group phase performance.
On paper, the match following their European excursion is much harder than the reality with a clash away to Manchester United. Old Trafford is never an easy place to go but this season that doesn't really ring true.
Even a strikerless Arsenal will fancy their chances against United. Out for revenge after the FA Cup penalty shootout defeat in January, Arsenal will be hoping to plunge United into further misery.
Ruben Amorim's men will also be coming off the back of Europa League action themselves, a competition which holds much more weight and importance due to the Champions League qualification at play. Not that Arsenal have too much room for rotation in the squad, it is an opportunity to potentially rest a few players ahead of the return PSV leg.
The clash against United will be the third away match in a row for Arteta to navigate. Travelling abroad in between the trips to Nottingham and Manchester won't help preparations either, but the situation could be considerably worse, given the opposition they have been put up against. There are tricky meetings here but nothing too scary.
The return last-16 tie is slated for three days after Old Trafford. Arsenal will have home advantage for the reverse fixture and are immediate favourites to progress through to the quarter-finals, where they already know they would face one of Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid.
The last-eight ties will be played on April 8/9 for the first leg and then one week later on April 15/16 for the return. Arsenal are due to play Everton at Goodison Park the weekend before the first leg, hosting Brentford afterwards.
They would then play the second leg prior to facing Ipswich Town away from home. Things are a bit more complicated for the semi-finals.
If Arsenal do get past PSV and then one of the Madrid sides in the next round, they will face the teams coming through Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool and Club Brugge vs Aston Villa.
The semi-finals are set to be played on April 29/30 for the first leg and then May 6/7 for the second tie. Now into the final month of the season, Arsenal currently have a home league game against Palace scheduled for the week prior to the first leg. They take on Bournemouth in north London the weekend after and then would play the second leg.
Crucially, if it is Liverpool who get through, then Arsenal will have a giant double-header that week, going to Anfield on May 10 as well for a potential league decider. That would be just days after the Champions League semi-finals.
That is all a long way off, though, and first Arsenal will be looking at who they play after the PSV second leg. Just before the international break, it is a game against Chelsea. On the same day that Liverpool face Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup final over a weekend that will see both sides end on 29 league matches played, it is crucial to finish off strong.
Chelsea were hammered in this match just over 12 months ago and are just as unpredictable right now. Also without an orthodox striker available, Arteta will be planning to inflict more pain on the Blues.
What this leaves is a definitely testing run of pre-and-post Champions League last-16 games, but the plight of Chelsea and United makes it much more palatable for Arsenal. Getting through this in one piece will set the Gunners up for a big push to the end after a fortnight away from club action. For once, the breather will be appreciated.
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