Arsenal Champions League verdict makes exciting reading for Mikel Arteta

The Gunners return to Champions League action this week and are expected to be one of the top teams fighting it out for the trophy this season

A supercomputer has predicted the outcome for the 2024/25 Champions League campaign - and it makes exciting reading for Arsenal fans this season.

The Gunners are among the early favourites to win the competition according to BetVictor's supercomputer, despite a relatively tough opening set of fixtures in the new league phase of the competition. Mikel Arteta's side take on last season's Europa League winners Atalanta later in their opening game of the competition later this week, before fixtures against PSG, Shakhtar Donetsk, Inter Milan, Sporting, AS Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and Girona.

Arsenal have a 67 percent chance of winning the competition according to the supercomputer's artificial intelligence, which has compared the data of all 36 teams in the competition against 12 measurable factors based on a comprehensive analysis of every winning team in the tournament since its inception in 1992.

The 12 factors consist of average goals per game, goals conceded per game, win percentage, home vs away win ratio, clean sheets, key player goal contributions, goal conversion rate, possession percentage, pass completion rate, set piece goals, squad depth based on minutes played by bench players and defensive errors leading to goals.

What factors are measured by the supercomputer:

Average Goals per Game: Teams should score at least 2.0 goals per match across the competition.
Goals Conceded per Game: Teams should aim to concede fewer than 0.75 goals per game.
Win Percentage: Clubs should maintain a win rate of at least 70% throughout the competition.
Home vs. Away Win Ratio: Clubs should aim for at least a 60% win rate in away matches and near-perfect (80%) at home.
Clean Sheets: At least 50% of the matches should result in a clean sheet (no goals conceded).
Key Player Goal Contributions: A club’s top two players (combined) should contribute to at least 35% of the team's total goals (scored or assisted).
Goal Conversion Rate: Teams should convert at least 15% of their total shots into goals.
Possession Percentage: Teams should maintain at least 55% possession across matches.
Pass Completion Rate: Teams should have a pass completion rate of at least 85%.
Set-Piece Goals: At least 15% of goals should come from set-pieces (corners, free-kicks, penalties).
Squad Depth (Minutes Played by Bench Players): Clubs should have at least 35% of total match minutes played by bench or rotational players.
Defensive Errors Leading to Goals: Teams should aim to have fewer than 5% of their goals conceded result from defensive errors.

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Premier League rivals Manchester City are the favourites to win the competition with an 83 percent chance of winning the competition, Bayern Munich in second with a 75 percent chance, and last season's winners Real Madrid with a 67 percent chance.

Liverpool are in fifth with a 58 per cent match of the metrics, while PSG have 58 per cent and Barcelona have 50 percent.

Sam Boswell, spokesperson of BetVictor, said: “The Champions League is filled with twists and turns and can be almost impossible to predict a winner at this early stage, so we’ve turned to artificial intelligence to provide a selection for this year’s competition based on trends in the previous 33 winners of the tournament.

“Our supercomputer has provided 12 measurable criteria that should be met in order to go all the way – combining both attacking and defensive aspects, squad depth, and performance in crucial moments – and it’s Manchester City who have been deemed to have the best chance of lifting their second Champions League trophy in Munich next year.

“The English champions fulfilled 10 of the 12 metrics provided – giving them an 83% chance of success – with this year’s final hosts, Bayern Munich, second with nine (75%). Arsenal have likewise been given a decent chance of success after satisfying eight of the metrics, putting them alongside current holders Real Madrid in our predictions on 67%.”

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Prime Video is broadcasting one Champions League game every game week free for Amazon Prime members. Arsenal's upcoming fixtures include Paris Saint-Germain on October 1 and Shakhtar Donetsk on October 22, both of which are free for Prime members or those signing up for a 30-day free trial.

Every Champions League and Europa League game is also available on TNT Sports via Prime Video’s Discovery+ channel.

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