Knicks vs. Spurs prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for NBA Cup final

· New York Post

Sometimes the best things in life are unexpected.

When the NBA Cup semifinals started, most people wondered if any of the three teams not named the Oklahoma City Thunder could even be competitive, let alone get a win. Then the Thunder ran into Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.

The Orlando Magic hadn’t lost a Cup game when they reached the final four of the in-season tournament. The Knicks made sure to remind them that this is basketball, not dodgeball.

Now we have an NBA Cup championship game that few had predicted, but everyone should be fired up to watch.

Knicks vs. Spurs odds, prediction

The Knicks appear to be the best offensive team in the NBA right now. The issues they had early in the season are starting to feel like a distant memory, and their starting five unit with Josh Hart looks much better than it did last season. Jalen Brunson certainly made a statement with an efficient 40-point game that looked about as easy as any big scoring game he’s had since coming to New York.

Wembanyama already had a statement game in the season opener when he scored 40 points and grabbed 15 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks. What he did on Saturday night was something else.

Wembanyama sat out the entire first quarter against the Thunder, played just 20 minutes, and finished the night with a plus-21 plus/minus in his first game in nearly a month. One player having that much of an impact in limited minutes is absurd.

Victor Wembanyama looks like an MVP candidate when he’s on the floor this season. Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Betting on the NBA?

Given that Wembanyama hadn’t played since mid-November and mentioned he was a bit winded at times, it would be reasonable to expect Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson to follow a similar game plan.

I think that sets up an interesting dynamic for the Knicks, who have been red-hot to start games recently. Over their past 10 games, the Knicks lead the NBA in first-quarter scoring with 33.8 points per game. The team directly behind them? The Spurs, who averaged 33.7 points over that stretch.

When Wembanyama is on the floor, he completely changes the opposing team’s offensive strategy and slows the pace as teams try to figure out how to attack him. When he’s off the floor, the Spurs look to run up and down with their speedy guards.

If Wembanyama rests most of the first quarter, which I expect will happen Tuesday night, I think we’ll see an offensive explosion from both teams to start.

I’ll bet the Over in the first quarter at 55.5, which feels low considering the output we’ve seen from these two offenses.

The Play: Over 55.5 first quarter points (-125, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.