Canada vs. Morocco World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, best bets for Round of 16 on Saturday

Morocco and Canada have had two different paths to the Round of 16.

While Morocco was drawn into a group with Brazil and faced the Netherlands in the Round of 32, Canada was placed in a quartet with Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Switzerland, and then took on South Africa in their first-ever knockout match at a World Cup.

You can only beat the team in front of you, but it’s necessary context when handicapping Saturday’s clash in Houston.

The bookies have certainly taken notice as Morocco is a -280 favorite to advance to the quarterfinals.

World Cup: Morocco vs. Canada odds, predictions

Jesse Marsch’s Canada knows one way to play. The Canucks want to go for it. Whether they’re playing against Qatar or France, the Canadians are going to go for it.

It’s a noble approach, and certainly an entertaining one, but there are times when it makes sense to go to your Plan B.

This would be one of those times.

In fact, Canada only needs to look back 10 days to see what can happen when a team throws caution to the wind and tries to attack Morocco.

Haiti played with reckless abandon against the Atlas Lions, and even took the lead, but they eventually were run off the pitch in a 4-2 win for Morocco, who created 3.76 expected goals against Les Grenadiers.

It’s necessary to note that Canada is a better team than Haiti, but that match should serve as a warning sign to the Canucks.

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This doesn’t mean that Canada should just entrench themselves and play for a stalemate, but instead be more cautious in how, and when, they press. Morocco has the talent to play through if you get too frisky, and that’s the fear for the Canadians in this matchup.

They don’t have the playmakers to get through the Moroccans, nor do they have the defensive prowess to slow down Achraf Hakimi, Ismael Saibari, and Brahim Diaz.

Morocco’s defense was able to hold firm against Brazil and the Netherlands, so I have little doubt they’ll be able to cope with Canada’s all-action approach.

Tip of the cap to Canada for getting this far, but this stylistic matchup could be a nightmare.

The Play: Morocco -1.5 goals (+210, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.