Miami vs. Ohio State prediction: Odds, picks, and best bet for Wednesday’s College Football Playoff clash

The College Football Playoff returns to action on New Year’s Eve with a showdown between Miami and Ohio State for the Cotton Bowl at Jerry World.

The Hurricanes punched their ticket to the quarterfinals with a 10-3 win over Texas A&M in College Station on Dec. 20, while the Buckeyes have been off since losing to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship on Dec. 6.

Ohio State is laying 9.5 points on Wednesday night, making the Buckeyes the biggest favorite of the four quarterfinal matchups, and the Over/Under is sitting at just 40.5, which is easily the lowest total of the round.

Miami vs. Ohio State odds, prediction

It was Miami’s defense that wrote the story against Texas A&M 11 days ago. The Hurricanes excelled at bending but not breaking, holding the Aggies to just three points while forcing three turnovers and recording seven sacks.

It was a defensive masterclass from the Hurricanes, but it’s not a gameplan that they can count on working against Ohio State.

While Texas A&M boasted some terrific playmakers on offense, the Aggies were a high-risk, high-reward outfit, and the Hurricanes were able to take advantage of some carelessness from Mike Elko’s side.

Even with the timely turnovers, Miami still wasn’t able to put away the Aggies, scoring just 10 points and doing almost nothing through the air. It was not a great game for quarterback Carson Beck.

The opening games of the 2025 College Football Playoff:

Round 1

• No. 9 Alabama 34, No. 8 Oklahoma 24 (Dec. 19)
• No. 10 Miami 10, No. 7 Texas A&M 3 (Dec. 20)
• No. 6 Ole Miss 41, No. 11 Tulane 10 (Dec. 20)
• No. 5 Oregon 51, No. 12 James Madison 34 (Dec. 20)

Quarterfinals

• No. 10 Miami vs No. 2 Ohio State at Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• No. 5 Oregon vs No. 4 Texas Tech on Jan. 1 at 12 p.m. ET
• No. 9 Alabama vs No. 1 Indiana on Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
• No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 3 Georgia on Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET

In all likelihood, Miami’s defense will need to be as good as it was against Texas A&M to have a shot against Ohio State, but the offense will need to improve a great deal. That is a tough ask considering Ohio State’s defense finished No. 1 in the country in yards per play and was ranked as the top unit in the country by SP+ in 2025.

That likely means it will be up to the defense to win this game for the Canes, but the stylistic matchup just doesn’t agree with what Miami wants to do.

The Hurricanes were one of the top teams in the nation at creating havoc, but they’re going up against an offense that excelled at keeping things tidy. The Buckeyes allowed 11 sacks and committed just nine turnovers in 2025.

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Credit to Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes for nicking a win from Texas A&M in Round 1, but this looks like a stylistic nightmare for Miami.

The Play: Ohio State -9.5 (-110, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.