Chelsea vs. Palmeiras odds, picks: FIFA Club World Cup best bets, predictions Friday

Sometimes a draw just breaks your way.

That’s exactly what’s happened with Chelsea at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. 

Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund are all on the bottom half of the bracket, but Chelsea is on the top with Palmeiras, Al-Hilal, and Fluminense.

The path is wide open for the Blues to get into the FIFA Club World Cup. 

FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. Palmeiras preview

The FIFA Club World Cup featured plenty of cannon fodder, but Chelsea were in a difficult group with Flamengo, LAFC, and ES Tunis.

The Blues slipped up against Flamengo in a 3-1 defeat, but they took care of business on either side of that match to qualify for the Round of 16.

The defeat to Flamengo was a bit of a shock to the system, but it actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise as it put Chelsea in the top half of the bracket, pitting them against Benfica in the Round of 16.

Chelsea’s 4-1 win over Benfica was strange.

The match went to extra time tied 1-1, and the two clubs were forced off the pitch for a two-hour weather delay, but the Blues were deserving winners. 

Chelsea created 2.7 expected goals and four big scoring chances in the contest, while holding Benfica to just 1.2 xG and one big chance. 

It was a weird match, but it was the most impressive display from the Blues in this tournament.

They’ll need to bring that form with them on Friday night as they take on Palmeiras, one of the tournament’s surprise packages.

Like a lot of South American teams, Palmeiras prefer to play a physical, low-event style of soccer and make life difficult for their opponents.

They played a snoozer against Botafogo in the Round of 16, winning 1-0 in extra time. That match featured just 2.43 expected goals and two big scoring chances combined, which is exactly what Palmeiras will want Friday night.

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FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. Palmeiras pick

Chelsea will want this game to open up, but the last thing the Blues can afford is to get caught and fall behind early. That would allow Palmeiras to sit back and do their thing.

The Blues likely have too much talent for Palmeiras and get through, but this one should get off to a sluggish start.

The Play: Same-Game Parlay: 1H Under 0.5 goals/Chelsea ML (+525, BetMGM)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.