James Madison vs. Oregon prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for College Football Playoff

James Madison vs. Oregon. In the College Football Playoff. These are the weirdest of times.

When the field expanded to 12 teams, it meant we were eventually going to get a matchup like this.

On one side of the field stands Oregon, a juggernaut backed up by one of the most robust NIL budgets in the country, and on the other, James Madison, playing in just its fourth season at the FBS level.

James Madison now heads across the country to Eugene as 21-point underdogs, hoping to pull off one of the most profound upsets in the history of the sport.

James Madison vs. Oregon odds, prediction

The Dukes were unquestionably one of the best teams in the Group of 5 this season, but they also ranked 121st in strength of schedule, with their only loss coming against their lone Power 4 opponent — Louisville.

You can only beat the teams in front of you, however, and James Madison did that in style in 2025.

The Dukes had an average margin of victory of 21.5 points, went 8-5 against the spread and won eight games by at least three possessions.

James Madison hit the 45-point mark five times, including against a couple of decent sides in Old Dominion and Texas State.

That kind of scoring power certainly makes the Dukes a tough out as a 21-point underdog, especially since James Madison excels at controlling the clock.

Only two teams (Army, Miami) average more time of possession per game than the Dukes, who lean into the run more than just about anybody outside of the Service Academies.

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Whether or not the Dukes will be able to pull that kind of game plan off against an elite Oregon defense remains to be seen, but it bodes well for James Madison’s chances to cover a large spread that it is committed to the run. That should keep the clock moving, which is a great thing for underdog bettors.

Oregon is likely going to prove to be too much for James Madison over the course of 60 minutes, but the Dukes are uniquely set up to be a thorn in the Ducks’ side on Saturday night.

The Play: James Madison +21 (-110, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.