Pick Six Previews: With or without Mateer, Oklahoma defense to get job done against Texas

10 Oct 2025, 21:52 by Brett Ciancia kslcom contributor · KSL.com

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

SALT LAKE CITY — Texas and Oklahoma meet in the middle every year in Dallas to renew one of the best traditions in college football.

The Red River Shootout crams 90,000+ fans into the Cotton Bowl – and another 200,000+ outside at the Texas State Fair — with the stadium split perfectly down the middle, with half in crimson and half in burnt orange.

For most of the past two decades, this rivalry has featured elite offenses, and the games have followed the series moniker as true Big 12 shootouts. Here in 2025, the Cotton Bowl setting will look the same, but both teams now have SEC patches on their uniforms and feature two of the best defenses in America.

Texas is 3-2 and facing playoff elimination, while Oklahoma enters undefeated and looking for another statement victory to bolster their own playoff resume (1:30 p.m. MDT, ABC).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Oklahoma 59.5 (19th of 68 Power 4) | Texas 77.7 (3rd)
2024 season: Oklahoma 47.4 (44th) | Texas 81.8 (3rd)
2025 season: Oklahoma 74.7 (9th) | Texas 70.3 (13th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Texas as a playoff team and they have fallen short of those lofty expectations so far. In the opener, they lost a defensive battle to No. 1 Ohio State, but the real disappointment came last week with the loss to a 1-3 Florida team.

Their Game Grader rating was downgraded from top five to 13th — just 27th over the past 4 games.

I ranked Oklahoma in the top 15 but noted their brutal schedule draw as a block on their path to the playoff. They passed tests against Michigan and Auburn, and now three of those forecasted tough opponents have been downgraded (Texas, South Carolina, LSU), and OU is now in the top 10 of Game Grader.

Oklahoma with the ball

Oklahoma offense: 33.8 points/game (45th of 136 FBS), 3.8 yards/carry (104th), 8.1 yards/pass (41st)
Texas defense: 12 points/game (5th of 136 FBS), 2.7 yards/carry (12th), 5.9 yards/pass (21st)

Last season, Oklahoma started a freshman quarterback and had to replace the entire offensive line. It simply did not work, and they fired their offensive coordinator midseason.

This offseason, Brent Venables hired Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and also got his quarterback to follow for a combo package. John Mateer has lived up to the hype and leads the SEC in passing yards per game (304) and is extremely elusive in the pocket.

Mateer suffered a hand injury against Auburn and had surgery, but the injury timeline was 3-5 weeks, with the front end of that range coming at kickoff Saturday.

This injury storyline has dominated the coverage of this game — he has flipped from questionable to probable on the injury report Thursday — especially because the drop-off from Mateer to his backup Michael Hawkins is significant.

Starting receiver Keontez Lewis is also listed as questionable. Without Lewis, Oklahoma would not have the firepower at receiver to match what Florida threw at the Texas secondary last week.

Texas limited Ohio State to 3.7 yards per play below their season average. That may not sound like a lot, but it is actually the No. 1 rated defensive performance this entire season so far. And even after the Florida loss, Texas remains in the top 25 of all key defensive metrics.

Texas with the ball

Texas offense: 29.6 points/game (63rd of 136 FBS), 4.5 yards/carry (60th), 8.3 yards/pass (35th)
Oklahoma defense: 7.2 points/game (2nd of 136 FBS), 2.4 yards/carry (5th), 4.8 yards/pass (2nd)

Speaking of elite defenses, Oklahoma may just have the best one in the nation. Oklahoma ranks in the top two in nine of my 17 stat categories, and in the top six of 15 — these are video-game stats.

They sacked former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold a school-record 10 times, and kept Michigan's five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood out of sync all game.

Look for a similar performance against Arch Manning. The preseason Heisman favorite has looked everything but, and is ranked 13th of 16 in the SEC in QB rating against Power Four opponents (65th nationally).

He has looked uncomfortable all season, achieved nothing downfield against Ohio State, missed on 10 consecutive throws in their non-AQ game, and missed on several open receivers last week against Florida. This is not the type of opposing defense to pull off a bounce-back game.

Game prediction

Among rivalry games, the Army-Navy-Air Force military games are known for low-scoring battles, while Oklahoma-Texas seems to light up the scoreboard every year. That trend will be flipped in 2025.

Navy beat Air Force 34-31 while Oklahoma-Texas should instead be the defensive struggle.

Two elite defenses, a quarterback performance question for Texas, a quarterback injury question for Oklahoma … this one should be low-scoring and be determined by third downs and red zone conversion.

Red zone TD%:

Oklahoma offense: 25th
Texas offense: 89th

Third down conversion%:

Oklahoma offense: 43rd
Texas Offense: 116th

I'll take Oklahoma's defense here to win it, with or without Mateer at quarterback.

Oklahoma 17 | Texas 14

Pick Six Previews: With or without Mateer, Oklahoma defense to get job done against Texas

Game Grader

Oklahoma with the ball

Texas with the ball

Game prediction

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