Pick Six Previews: With title game in sight, BYU to get right in win over Houston

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

PROVO — After surging to a 9-0 start to the season, BYU lost to Kansas and then made it two losses in a row Saturday with a 28-23 defeat at Arizona State.

In front of a sellout crowd, Arizona State scored two touchdowns, successfully converted a surprise onside kick, and then punched in a third touchdown to build a 21-3 halftime lead.

All-America candidate Cam Skattebo was the story of the first half and finished with 159 yards and three scores — one of which drew a penalty after autographing a fan's football.

BYU made enough halftime adjustments in the pass game, and used more up-tempo pace, to get back to a 28-23 score with the ball in the final minute. Jake Retzlaff missed an open receiver down the sideline, and on the next play threw an interception that appeared to end the game with one minute remaining.

But Arizona State was unable to drain the clock out; and on fourth down, Sam Leavitt heaved a pass into the stands to try to burn off the final seconds of the game. Most of the Sun Devils crowd poured onto the field, assuming the clock hit 0:00, despite the final play going under review.

The refs placed one second back on the clock to give BYU one more shot from midfield. It took 15 minutes to clear fans off the field, and, shockingly, no unsportsmanlike penalties were assessed on the home crowd or their argumentative head coach Kenny Dillingham.

BYU's final Hail Mary attempt appeared to be caught but was 2 yards short of the goal line. Those extra 15 penalty yards could have been crucial, but as BYU head coach Kalani Sitake correctly stated, "it was the 59 minutes and 59 seconds before that" that determined the outcome.

BYU hosts Houston Saturday night (8:15 p.m. MST, ESPN) and needs some help from either Kansas State (over Iowa State) or Arizona (over Arizona State) to make their finale a "win and in" scenario for the Big 12 title game.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Houston 48.1 (47th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Houston 33.0 (62nd)
2024 season: BYU 67.6 (15th) | Houston 39.0 (57th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

BYU shattered all preseason expectations with their 9-0 start, and even with the close losses to Kansas and Arizona State, they remain in the top 15.

Houston ranks 14th in the 16-team Big 12 in Game Grader, but they did notch three key league wins: TCU, Kansas State, and Utah. Their season has been completely one-sided — defense only — and they fired their offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay.

Houston with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Houston offense (2024): 15th of 16 Big 12 (15th passing, 10th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 7th rushing)

This will be Houston's first game since firing Barbay. They have struggled all season on this side of the ball, ranking second worst in my advanced stats for overall offense and passing offense. Houston is only in front of Utah in those categories, and their 13.6 points per game is dead last in all of FBS.

Houston has thrown more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (9), and they are one of the worst statistical passing offenses in the nation. They made a midseason shift at quarterback, and for whatever reason, lightning struck twice for Zeon Chriss, passing for 141 yards (15-of-18, 83%) and 103 yards (11-of-11, 100%) with touchdowns in the wins over TCU and Kansas State.

I do not see a third explosion here, as BYU's secondary and pass defense rank in the top 10 of almost all passing categories.

Tyler Batty has been a force in the trenches all season, linebacker Isaiah Glasker is quickly becoming a star, and coordinator Jay Hill's unit has forced 23 turnovers (seventh nationally). Look for another takeaway frenzy here to set up the offense with shorter fields.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (11th passing, 6th rushing)
Houston defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (9th passing, 5th rushing)

Retzlaff finished with 297 yards, Darius Lassiter was on the receiving end of 103 of those, Chase Roberts had big plays, and do-it-all athlete Keelan Marion cashed in for two rushing touchdowns. The offense clicked after halftime adjustments by coordinator Aaron Roderick, and the up-tempo pace helped.

But there were missed opportunities in another winnable game. Retzlaff threw two picks — one in the final minute, a play after overthrowing a wide-open potential game-winning score. Playing with a deficit caused the heavy play-calling shift from run to pass, and LJ Martin only got nine carries all game.

Houston is one of the most-improved defenses in all of college football this season, and ranks in the Big 12's top five in overall defense and rushing defense.

Game prediction

Colorado's upset loss to Kansas opened up more of an opportunity for BYU. Now, instead of total chaos, they just need one of either Iowa State (3-point favorite) or Arizona State (9-point favorite) to lose. And, of course, they must win themselves.

BYU will get back on track Saturday night and control a weak opposing offense. I project Kansas State to beat Iowa State, which would send BYU to Dallas to play for a Big 12 title, and a playoff bid.

BYU 27 | Houston 10

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Brett Ciancia

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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.