Pick Six Previews: UCF to break some explosive plays, send Utah out with another loss

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's nightmare season added another chapter Saturday night as they failed to finish off the win over a ranked Iowa State, losing late by a field goal margin 31-28.

With the loss, Utah falls to 4-7 on the year, snaps their long bowl streak, and extends their seven-game losing streak, which is the program's worst in 38 years.

This one, like five of the losses that ended within a score, was winnable. Fifth-string quarterback Luke Bottari was called into action; and on the late fourth quarter drive, he reeled off two long carries to set up Micah Bernard's go-ahead score with six minutes remaining.

Utah then forced Iowa State into a third-down spot, but the halfback pass trick play fooled them, and the Cyclones regained the lead with 90 seconds left. Down by 3 points, Utah was able to get within range for a long field goal attempt — a 54-yarder — which Cole Becker missed.

Bowl season is out, but Utah has one final chance to snap the losing streak Friday night in Orlando at UCF (6 p.m. MST, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | UCF 51.7 (34th)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | UCF 53.7 (31st)
2024 season: Utah 43.3 (52nd) | UCF 49.5 (41st)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine, Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked UCF to finish fifth out of 16. Both teams have vastly under-performed against those expectations.

UCF was supposed to feature former preseason All-SEC quarterback KJ Jefferson, but the prized transfer was benched a few games in. The defense was supposed to make major gains with their returning production and top 25 transfer haul, but they ended up firing coordinator Ted Roof after more failures.

Still, UCF is better than their record shows, lost three one-score games, and won the yardage battle eight times.

UCF with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

UCF offense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (5th passing, 2nd rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 5th of 16 Big 12 (3rd passing, 8th rushing)

UCF has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, and one of the few to rank in the top 20 of both my long-yardage passing and long-yardage rushing stats. The rushing attack averages 255 yards per game and 5.9 per carry — both are top five marks nationally.

RJ Harvey rushed for 1,416 yards in 2023 and has eclipsed that again in 2024 to lead the Big 12 with 1,458 yards, 21 touchdowns, and a high 6.9 per carry.

For such a productive offense, they have struggled to convert the yards into points. Two keys to the game have held back this offense all season: turnovers (77th) and red zone scoring (56th). It will be strength vs. strength on this side, because Utah's defense is, once again, ranked in the top 25 in my opponent-adjusted metric.

Last week, my favorite streak in college football was extended. Lander Barton returned an interception for a touchdown, marking the 21st straight year Utah has had a pick six — by far the longest streak in America. UCF may be more productive, but Utah is more disciplined and will cause several mistakes and turnovers.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (16th passing, 15th rushing)
UCF defense (2024): 6th of 16 Big 12 (13th passing, 6th rushing)

No one could have predicted this offense. With a star-packed roster, and conference title aspirations, instead Utah's offense fell to dead last in the Big 12 and saw an October coordinator change.

Already with three quarterbacks injured, Isaac Wilson made it four. Wilson started the game a perfect 8-of-8 passing, including a 46-yarder, but was knocked out of the game and was seen with a knee brace.

Fifth-string QB Luke Bottari rushed for 56 yards on their go-ahead touchdown drive, and then got the Utes into Iowa State territory in time for a final field goal attempt. Head coach Kyle Whittingham stated after the game that Bottari "probably will be our quarterback next week."

As a whole, the UCF defense has struggled and was weak in late-game situations, costing them several close losses. One bright spot has been the rush defense — No. 25 in my opponent-adjusted metric — which could limit Utah's best offensive player Micah Bernard.

With a fifth-stringer, the pass game will be limited, meaning more emphasis on the ground and ball control.

Game prediction

In August, I circled this matchup as one of my favorite Big 12 games, and I expected it to have massive league title implications; that simply never came to fruition. The teams are on a combined 1-14 skid, and both are already eliminated from bowl season.

Look for Utah's limited offense to struggle and for UCF to break a few explosive plays to make the difference.

UCF 27 | Utah 17

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Brett Ciancia

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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.