Pick Six Previews: With 2 elite defenses, Penn State's offense the advantage in CFP semifinal

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

MIAMI — Two of college football's most historic programs face off in the first national semifinal of the expanded 12-team playoff era, and both are attempting to break title droughts of nearly 40 years.

Notre Dame, with perhaps the largest national fan base, finished No. 1 in 1988 but then went decades without winning a title, or BCS bowl game, or playoff game.

Penn State may not have its national legion of so-called "Subway Domers," but their Central Pennsylvania fan base is just as passionate, and their alumni network is powerful throughout the entire Northeast. Their Nittany Lions won the 1986 title, went undefeated in 1994, but recently found themselves wedged into a powerhouse Big Ten East with their playoff access blocked by dynasty-tier Ohio State.

Both have broken through in 2024 with old-fashioned football: dominant rushing attacks and elite defenses. Notre Dame ended its big-game drought by routing Indiana in the opener, and then defeated the SEC champions Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 23-10.

Penn State finally broke into the national semifinals by destroying SMU 38-10 and then out-muscling Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl. The two teams meet for the first time since 2007, but this time it's in the Orange Bowl with a ticket to the national championship game at stake (5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).

Game Grade

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Penn State 69.3 (6th of 70 Power Four) | Notre Dame 68.5 (7th)
2023 season: Penn State 75.2 (7th) | Notre Dame 77.6 (6th)
2024 season: Penn State 77.5 (6th) | Notre Dame 80.8 (5th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

No program benefitted more from the playoff expansion than Penn State. They were stuck behind Ohio State (2016-21) and Michigan (2022-23), and never finished in the top four, but were consistently a top 10 team.

Their special 2022 recruiting class was stacked with five-star prospects who are now taking Penn State to a new national stage. They check in with a No. 6 ranking in my 2024 Game Grader, with close losses to Ohio State and Oregon.

Like Penn State, Notre Dame has been consistently "great" but is finally nearing "elite" territory. They started 2024 with a statement win over Texas A&M, but then embarrassingly lost at home to Northern Illinois. Since then, they have rattled off 11 straight wins, and the last nine have been by double-digits for their best such run since their 1949 national title team.

Notre Dame with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Notre Dame offense (2024): 10th of 70 Power Four (21st passing, 1st rushing)
Penn State defense (2024): 5th of 70 Power Four (8th passing, 12th rushing)

Notre Dame's old-school offense ranks No. 1 nationally in my opponent-adjusted rushing metric, and their offensive line is one of the few to rank in the top 20 of both my OL run push and pass protection.

Riley Leonard is effective with his legs by extending pass plays, and he also takes a heavy workload with designed runs. Unfortunately, their top back, 1,000-yarder Jeremiyah Love, aggravated a knee injury in the third quarter of the Georgia game and was limited in practice. Head coach Marcus Freeman said that while "no one is 100% right now, he'll be good to go."

The weakest unit in this entire matchup is Notre Dame's passing offense against Penn State's top-10 pass defense. Notre Dame is just 128th nationally at creating explosive, long-yardage pass plays, and 92nd in yards per attempt. With Love's health status in question, even more stress is placed on this passing attack to produce.

Last year, Manny Diaz coordinated a top-rated defense for Penn State, and in 2024 Tom Allen built another top five unit. They placed four starters on the All-Big Ten team — lineman Abdul Carter, linebacker Kobe King, and defensive backs AJ Harris and Jaylen Reed — and Carter earned unanimous All- America honors.

In the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State held Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to a season-low in rushing yards and controlled the line of scrimmage.

Penn State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Penn State offense (2024): 8th of 70 Power Four (7th passing, 11th rushing)
Notre Dame defense (2024): 3rd of 70 Power Four (1st passing, 14th rushing)

Penn State's offense does not get enough attention. In the preseason, quarterback Drew Allar faced a lot of pressure but has turned in a 24 touchdown, seven-pick, 3,000-yard season; and in the all-encompassing QB rating stat, this is the best performance by a Penn State quarterback since Trace McSorley in 2016.

The Nittany Lions also have the only duo of 1,000-yard rushers in the nation with Kaytron Allen (1,026) and Nicholas Singleton (1,015).

Their do-it-all tight end, Tyler Warren, won the Mackey Award and caught two touchdown passes in the win over Boise State. They will be challenged by my No. 1-rated pass defense and a Notre Dame defense that was swarming all over the field, limiting the SEC champs to just 10 points.

Xavier Watts is the headliner after earning All-America status again in 2024.

Game prediction

While Notre Dame has been on the playoff and BCS stage in 2012, 2018 and 2020, this will be Penn State's most important game in at least 30 years. This is just the third national title or semifinal to feature two non-Southern teams since the creation of the BCS in 1998.

I see two elite defenses, but Penn State's dynamic offensive weapons and passing attack make the difference.

Penn State 24 | Notre Dame 21

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Brett Ciancia

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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.