Sharp money moves betting line on Miami-Indiana CFP national championship

Unbeaten Indiana appears unstoppable after annihilating Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25 in its first two College Football Playoff games.

The betting public is all over the Hoosiers over Miami (Florida) in Monday’s night’s national championship game. But sharp bettors have backed the Hurricanes as underdogs at their home Hard Rock Stadium.

Indiana is a consensus 8½-point favorite after the line opened as low as 7 and climbed as high as 9. Sophisticated money on Miami has caused the line to dip to 8 at multiple sportsbooks.

“We took some sharp money on Miami +8½ (Friday), so we’re down to 8,” Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “I know the sharps were on the ’Canes against Ohio State at a similar number, so I guess they’ll be on the ’Canes again.

“And we’re dealing -105 on the game, so we should write some decent business.”

Miami upset Ohio State 24-14 in the CFP quarterfinals as a 7½-point underdog after the line was as high as 10.

The South Point has taken sharp bets on both teams.

“We definitely had sharp play (on Indiana) at -7½ and -8,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “We wound up going all the way to 9 and we finally got some sharp play coming back on Miami +9. The public is definitely on Indiana.”

The point spread has dipped back to 8 at STN Sports, though the book still expects to need the underdog.

“Looks like we are going to be Hurricanes fans,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Game opened 7 and quickly went to 8½. So early money was on Indiana. We have seen a little bit of ’Canes money show so that pushed us down to 8. Ticket count clearly favors Indiana at 62 percent at this point.

“Best-case scenario as of now is a Miami cover and under.”

Sharp play on total

The total was as high as 48½ before sharp money on the under caused it to drop to 46½ at the South Point.

“They bet me under 48½, under 48 and under 47½,” Andrews said. “The wiseguys are on the under and the ’dog, but only at +9.”

‘Super Bowl situation’

Bogdanovich said the best-case scenario for Boomer’s will be if Indiana wins but doesn’t cover. The Hoosiers (15-0, 10-5 ATS) are -350 on the money line and the Hurricanes (13-2, 10-5 ATS) are +290.

“I think this will be a Super Bowl situation,” he said. “The public will be minus the points on Indiana and you’ll see a lot of people on the money line on Miami. So if Indiana doesn’t cover but wins the game, I think the books will scoop the pot.”

Best bet

Pro sports bettor Paul Stone, 10-3 against the spread on his college football postseason picks in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, hit his best bet on the Hoosiers (-3) in their 56-22 blowout of the Ducks in the CFP semifinals. But he believes the betting value rests with Miami in the title game.

“Not taking anything away from Indiana,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports), “but the Hoosiers needed late touchdowns to win at both Iowa and Penn State. Indiana’s elite throughout its lineup and is so sound fundamentally in all phases, but they’re not unbeatable.”

Miami leads the country in sacks (47) this season and might be able to take Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza out of his comfort zone, Stone said.

“If Akheem Mesidor (10½ sacks on the season) and Rueben Bain Jr. (8½ sacks) can affect Mendoza’s rhythm,” Stone said, “I believe the Hurricanes will make this a four-quarter game.”

Miami is 7-0 straight up and ATS this season against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 poll and is 3-0 ATS as the betting underdog, with outright upsets of Notre Dame in the season opener and Texas A&M and Ohio State in the CFP.

Stone recommends taking Miami +8½ and “sprinkling a little” on the money line on the Hurricanes.

“I’d put 60 percent of my unit on the point spread,” Stone said, “and the remaining 40 percent on the money line.”