NFL divisional playoff betting predictions: Breakdowns for every game

Scott Pritchard, PritchardsPicks.com, @pritchardwins

Bills (13-5) at Broncos (14-3)

Time: 1:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS

Line/total: Broncos -1½, 46

Analysis: In the last meeting between these teams, the Broncos were routed 31-7 by the Bills in Buffalo in last season’s wild-card playoffs. Although Denver has greatly fortified its defense since then to leap into the top four in most statistical categories, the question remains how they will slow down the Bills offensive juggernaut led by quarterback Josh Allen, the reigning NFL MVP who dismantled the Jaguars’ highly-touted defense with his arm and feet last week. He rushed for two touchdowns while passing for 273 yards. The Broncos’ greater dilemma might be how they improve on those seven points they scored in their last meeting with Buffalo, as their just slightly above average offense must face the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense. Unfortunately for Denver, the old French phrase, “the more things change, the more they stay the same,” applies again, and the victory goes to the Bills behind another valiant effort.

Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 20

49ers (13-5) at Seahawks (14-3)

Time: 5 p.m. Saturday, Fox

Line/total: Seahawks -7, 45

Analysis: These teams just played each other two weeks ago, when the Seahawks dominated the 49ers while dealing them an ego-crushing 13-3 defeat at Santa Clara, Calif. The Seahawks dominated not so much in the final score, which would have been more lopsided if not for a couple missed field goals by Seattle kicker Jason Myers, but by the way the Seahawks defense stymied the Niners offense, limiting them to 173 total yards and nine first downs. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald calls the plays on defense for the Seahawks, and he’s had the inside angle on defending 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy since 2023 when Macdonald was defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, when they intercepted Purdy four times. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan will have to pull more than a few rabbits out of his hat to lift the Niners’ pass-reliant offense without tight end George Kittle against the NFL’s No. 1 defense in points allowed and third-down conversions. Offensive failures will put even more pressure on a 49ers defense that can be called average at best. In the end, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and Seattle’s third-ranked scoring offense proves too talented to contain.

Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 20

Texans (13-5) at Patriots (15-3)

Time: Noon Sunday, ABC, ESPN

Line/total: Patriots -3, 41

Analysis: The lopsided matchup that should decide this game is the Patriots’ top-four scoring defense against the Texans’ below-average offense in yards gained. To make matters worse for Houston, it’s expected to be without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion). If Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has a comparable number of interceptions and fumbles (five) as he did in last week’s win in Pittsburgh, the pressure will be too much to bear even for Houston’s top-rated defense as it attempts to contain New England’s top-four passing offense and No. 5 scoring offense. This is the Texans’ third straight year in the divisional round of the playoffs, and it should also be their third straight loss, unless Patriots’ second-year quarterback Drake Maye’s playoff inexperience results in an uncharacteristic meltdown.

Pick: Patriots 27, Texans 17

Rams (13-5) at Bears (12-6)

Time: 3:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC

Line/total: Rams -4, 48

Analysis: Expect painfully cold single-digit temperatures with the wind chill for this game. Snow in the forecast might be the only thing that can help a bottom-10 Bears defense slow down the NFL’s No. 1 passing and scoring offense. This is exactly the kind of defense Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford delights in facing as he airs it out to wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua broke the NFL record for fastest to 250 career receptions and led the league with 129 catches this season. Adams, not to be outdone, led the NFL with in receiving touchdown (14) and red zone touchdowns (12). The Rams’ top-10 scoring defense should provide just enough resistance to a talented Bears offense, which ranks third in rushing, to give Los Angeles an insurmountable lead.

Pick: Rams 34, Bears 17