Report Doubles Down On A Low-Cost Apple A18 MacBook Arriving Soon

The chorus of analysts and leakers crooning about a lower-cost MacBook coming to town is growing louder. Joining the fray is a fresh report by TrendForce, in which the market research firm outlined several reasons why it's downward adjusting its notebook shipment forecast for 2026. Those same reasons could compel to Apple to offer a cheaper MacBook.

You can probably guess one of the reasons—surging memory prices, which are "squeezing notebook brands' profit margins and pricing freedom." Sadly for consumers, memory makers are turning their focus towards more profitable data center clients as the rise of AI puts the squeeze on chip supplies. That's not just speculation, Micron basically said as much when it announced the end of its Crucial consumer brand after nearly three decades.

"Consequently, TrendForce has reduced its 2026 global projection for notebook shipments to a 5.4% YoY decrease, totaling around 173 million units. This shift indicates a more conservative approach by brands toward inventory management, promotions, and product setups in response to increasing cost pressures," TrendForce states.

"If memory price increases do not significantly slow down by the second quarter of 2026 and brands cannot pass on higher costs, the demand for entry-level and consumer notebooks might decline further," it adds.

In that scenario, notebook shipments could decline by more than 10% year-over-year. The market research firm notes that the notebook market is heavily dependent on supply chain relationships, product offerings, channel strategies, and enterprise demand.

This where bigger players have an advantage. Apple is one of them, and even though memory costs are skyrocketing, it's integrated supply chain and robust pricing power gives it added flexibility to adjust its product lineup. As such, the firm says Apple aims to introduce a 12.9-inch laptop model in the spring, and that it will target the entry-to-mid-range segment.

"Although the timing isn't perfect, ongoing supply chain efficiencies, scale benefits, and competitive pricing should help the product attract buyers, boosting market penetration and sustained shipment performance," TrendForce states.

This is not the first we've heard of a lower cost MacBook. There have been multiple leaks and rumors over the past few months, with people who are supposedly familiar with Apple's plans recently telling Bloomberg that the upcoming MacBook will carry the codename J700. They also say it will feature a lower quality display smaller than 13.6 inches, which in line with TrendForce's forecast, and will move away from Apple's custom M-based silicon to keep the cost low.

The general consensus is that it will run on Apple's A18 Pro silicon, which powers the iPhone 16 Pro series. That chip is a 64-bit Arm design with a 6-core CPU, 6-core GPU, and 16-core neural engine.

As we've said before, the challenge for Apple will be in not cannibalizing its current MacBook Air series. The base 13-inch MacBook Air with 16GB of unified memory and 256GB of storage has a $999 MSRP, but is often on sale for $799 by Apple's retail partners, as it is right now at Amazon. We've also seen it drop to as low as $749.