Apple scales back iPhone Air production, other iPhone 17 models keep shining

It turns out "thinner" isn't the killer feature this year

by · TechSpot

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What we know so far: Apple's thinnest iPhone is losing momentum, prompting a slight cut to its production forecast through the end of 2025, according to new data from Japan's Mizuho Securities. The investment research firm trimmed its estimate for the iPhone Air by about one million units, reflecting weaker-than-expected sales compared with Apple's other iPhone 17 models.

Mizuho's report indicates that overall iPhone output projections have also been adjusted. Apple's total annual shipments – previously pegged at 246 million units – are now expected to fall 7 percent to about 229 million units for 2026. The downgrade reflects uneven performance across the iPhone lineup, even as the company's flagship and base models continue to perform above expectations.

Sales of the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max remain strong, with slight increases in planned production. The base iPhone 17 has been given an additional 2 million units of output, while the 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max forecasts were raised by 1 million and 4 million units, respectively.

These gains offset some of the declines in iPhone Air shipments, leading to an overall production revision upward – from 88 million units to 94 million – for Apple's current manufacturing cycle.

Introduced last month, the iPhone Air serves as Apple's new ultra-slim variant, engineered around a lighter chassis and optimized thermal design. The model is positioned between the standard iPhone 17 and the Pro line, offering a thinner frame, improved OLED display efficiency, and power management tuned for longer battery life despite its smaller form factor. However, Mizuho Securities suggests its appeal has been limited compared with the company's premium and entry-level models, which continue to attract the bulk of demand globally.

iFixit opened the iPhone Air to see how Apple had achieved its slim design

Despite the slower sales, the iPhone Air has shown particular strength in China, still the largest smartphone market in the world. Mizuho Securities notes that Apple's brand positioning and sustained consumer interest there provide some cushion against a deeper global slowdown for the model.

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Even so, a continued softening of demand could push Apple to rebalance its production mix, shifting capacity toward the higher-selling iPhone 17 variants as the holiday quarter approaches.

The trend contrasts with rival Samsung's recent move to scale back its own thin smartphone efforts. Supply issues and lower-than-expected demand for the Galaxy S25 Edge led Samsung to cancel plans for its next-generation Galaxy S26 Edge, signaling a broader market challenge for ultra-slim flagship designs.

As the year progresses, Apple's response will likely hinge on how the iPhone Air performs in late-year sales cycles. For now, the company's traditional models appear to be carrying its production momentum, leaving the Air as a secondary player in a lineup otherwise performing ahead of expectations.