Is Netanyahu using Lebanon to scuttle the US-Iran deal?

Israel's escalating military campaign in Lebanon appears aimed not only at countering Hezbollah but also at undermining ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, reflecting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long-standing preference for military pressure over diplomacy.

Two weeks ago, Donald Trump asserted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would do “whatever I want him to do.” Since then, Israel’s incursion into Lebanon has intensified, with more air strikes and the killing of hundreds more people. On June 1, Netanyahu announced he had ordered an attack on the suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. That prompted Iran to threaten to suspend talks with the US, and its military warned Israel of retaliatory strikes.

Israel didn’t respond to Iran’s latest threat, but Trump did. On Truth Social, he said that he had spoken to Netanyahu and, indirectly, to Hezbollah. He claimed that both had agreed not to attack each other.

The question is whether Netanyahu escalated in Lebanon because Trump wanted him to — perhaps to put pressure on Iran — or whether Netanyahu defied the US president because he opposed the deal the Americans had been negotiating with the Islamic regime?

Given Trump’s unpredictable and capricious nature, Israel may have been acting in Lebanon at least with his green light. Seeing the Iran deal slipping out of his hands, he intervened late on Monday. But look at Netanyahu’s history, and you will find that the Israeli leader has always favoured using military force over diplomacy to achieve his political objectives. It’s no secret that he was not in favour of a ceasefire in Iran, and even now, he is ready to resume the war because he believes that a US-Iran deal will be bad for Israel.

WHY LEBANON MATTERS?

Iran’s most powerful proxy group is Lebanon’s Hezbollah. It’s more powerful than Lebanon’s army. The group has been in conflict with Israel since its creation in 1982, and presents itself as the main defender against the nation. It enjoys strong support among Lebanon’s Shia Muslims. Israelis see the group as a major threat because of its ability to launch drones and missiles at them.

Two days after Israel and the US launched a military operation against Iran on February 28, Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Iran, prompting a strong Israeli military response. More than 3,400 people have been killed by Israel in Lebanon since then, nearly 900 since the ceasefire was announced on April 8. Israel disputed that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire, despite Iran’s assertions that it was.

Israel’s daily bombardment has displaced more than a million people, a fifth of Lebanon’s population, since March. Israeli officials have threatened to destroy the country as they have done to Gaza. They plan to seize the entire area south of the Litani River that bisects Lebanon from east to west. Israel claims its Lebanon operation is to strengthen Israel’s security and protect its citizens from Hezbollah rockets, but this also appears to be aimed at provoking Iran to abandon the ceasefire and resume the war.

SYMBOLIC VICTORY BUT STRATEGIC DEFEAT

Last weekend, Israel’s military captured Lebanon’s strategically important Beaufort Castle, a medieval hilltop fortress, and raised the Israeli flag over it. This was the second time in 44 years that Israel captured Beaufort; the first time was at the start of the 1982 invasion of Lebanon. “We have returned to Beaufort united, determined and stronger than ever,” Netanyahu proclaimed.

He also boasted that since Israel was attacked in October 2023, the Israeli military has killed 8,000 Hezbollah “terrorists”, including 700 in the past month alone. However, many Israelis remain unconvinced by his declarations. Netanyahu and his ministers claimed to have destroyed Hezbollah and its vast arsenal of missiles and drones during the group's war with Israel two years ago.

Last October, the US said the Lebanese military had successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets and about 400 missiles from the group. But within days of the Iran war, its attacks on Israel showed that it not only had a substantial number of weapons left in its arsenal but also managed to produce a new series of explosive drones that the Israeli military couldn’t easily intercept.

DIPLOMACY IS NOT THE FIRST OPTION

Throughout his political career, Netanyahu has sought to avoid, if not sabotage, a diplomatic solution. He has made it clear that he would not allow a Palestinian state, despite previously discussing the issue under pressure. For example, he entered into talks with the Palestinians in 2013–2014 under pressure from President Obama, but only to demonstrate that dialogue wouldn’t yield any results.

Israel fought three wars with Hamas before 2023, and each time, Netanyahu either avoided or opposed negotiations on the two-state solution. Under pressure from Trump, he agreed to a deal to end the Gaza war in 2025. Still, he ordered his military to continue operations in the territory, resulting in more than 900 people being killed since the ceasefire, according to officials in Gaza.

Netanyahu never truly accepted the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, negotiated and signed by Obama and other major powers. He persuaded Trump, during his first term, to abandon it, despite Iran’s compliance. When Biden sought an alternative deal, Netanyahu opposed it. He attacked Iran when the Trump administration, in its second term, began talks with the Islamic country over the nuclear issue. In February, he persuaded Trump to start the war jointly.

NETANYAHU’S APPROACH HURTS ISRAEL

While Israelis do not want Iran to possess nuclear weapons or pursue an enrichment programme that could lead to weaponisation, Netanyahu’s policies have only made that more likely. If Iran doesn’t trust the US to reach a new deal, at least in part, the responsibility lies with Netanyahu. His campaign against the 2015 deal, which led Trump to abandon it, has dented America’s diplomatic credibility. Not just Iran, but also any other country seeking an agreement with the US now wonders whether the US would honour it.

In the case of Iran, the current situation is a potential nightmare for Israel. Iran’s nuclear programme was the core issue for the US when it started the war in February. Iran’s retaliation against US allies in the Gulf and its use of the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint have caused so much havoc for the world economy that the nuclear issue has been pushed to the back burner. Now the priority in the talks is the reopening of the waterway. In the recent drafts being discussed between the US and Iran, the nuclear enrichment issue will be negotiated only in the second round.

After the targeted killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who approved the 2015 deal, the Islamic country is now led by a more hardline leader closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He has already declared that enriched uranium will not leave the country. Making a nuclear bomb to secure it against future attacks by Israel and the US is now a rallying cry in Iran.

Netanyahu may boast that he persuaded the US to join Israel’s war, but the fact is that Israel is not even at the negotiating table where its future is being decided. Thus, Netanyahu’s military campaign in Lebanon is partly intended to sabotage an Iran-US deal and to resume the war. The problem is that Trump is desperate for such a deal, which explains his reining in of Netanyahu on Monday.

(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the BBC and Associated Press. He is based in London.)

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