Make-or-break talks: Iran backs out, US pushes ahead, and a hopeful Pak prepares

As a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran nears its April 22 deadline, the hopes of extending it and cooling-off tensions hinge on a second round of talks in Islamabad. Tehran says it won't be attending, while Washington is pushing ahead. Pakistan, meanwhile, is preparing for talks that might not happen at all.

Peace now hangs by a thread and the spool could be in Islamabad. That's where the next move in the US-Iran standoff is supposed to be decided. Just hours after US President Donald Trump said his team was heading to Pakistan for a second round of talks, Iran pulled the plug. Tehran's refusal to attend the second round of US-Iran talks, has cast doubt on whether a fragile ceasefire, due to expire on April 22, will be extended. Meanwhile, Pakistan, desperate to don the "mediator's hat", is preparing in full swing. It has suspended public and goods transport in its capital, Islamabad, and adjoining Rawalpindi in Punjab — the Islamic Republic's twin cities.

The stakes are unusually high this time. That urgency comes from Trump's escalation in rhetoric just a day before on Sunday. He warned that if Tehran did not accept US terms, Washington would "knock out every single power plant" and "bridges" in Iran. However, Iran has retaliated by blaming Washington's "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions", and an ongoing US naval blockade of its ports, which it considers a breach of the truce.

Amid all this, if Trump is to be believed, his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected be in Islamabad for the potential second round of talks on Monday. Pakistan has also beefed up the security outside Islamabad's Serana Hotel, where the first talks happened on April 11 and 12 and the potential second one would take place, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

Amid this situation, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir spoke to Trump over the phone and warned that the US blockade of Iranian ports was a "hurdle to the second round of peace talks in Islamabad," news agency Reuters reported, citing sources.

Meanwhile, the 14-day ceasefire, which kicked in on April 8, is expected to end on April 22, and that's probably why the second round of talks is being seen as the last chance to extend it.

"Authorities in Pakistan's capital are preparing for the arrival of delegations from the US and Iran ahead of a second round of talks. US President Donald Trump says negotiators will head to Pakistan on Monday, raising hopes of extending a fragile ceasefire set to expire by Wednesday even as Washington and Tehran remain in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not yet confirmed the talks," Philip Crowther, the Associated Press correspondent in Islamabad posted on X.

While everything now hinges on talks in Pakistan, they may not happen at all, if the Iranians do not show up.

IRAN BACKS OUT, US PUSHES AHEAD, PAKISTAN WAITS FOR 2.0 TALKS

Iran has said it would not participate in the planned second round of talks with the US in Pakistan, according to Tehran's state media. The decision is a reversal from earlier reports which said an Iranian delegation could travel to Islamabad this week.

Tehran has blamed Washington's approach, citing "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, and repeated shifts in stance." It has also pointed to the ongoing US naval blockade of its ports, calling it a violation of the ceasefire conditions.

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref described the US negotiating posture as "childish", accusing Washington of talking about peace while simultaneously escalating pressure.

On the other hand, the US appears to be pressing ahead for the second round of talks, after the first one in Islamabad failed earlier this month. Trump said American negotiators would still reach Islamabad.

Pakistan, meanwhile, has not officially confirmed whether the talks will take place, but has continued to signal readiness to host them.

LOCKDOWN MODE IN ISLAMABAD. PAKISTAN PREPARES FOR US-IRAN 2.0 TALKS

Even as uncertainty clouds the US-Iran second round of talks, an exited Pakistan has moved into full preparation mode.

Authorities in Islamabad and Rawalpindi have imposed sweeping curbs on transport. They have suspended public and goods movement, shutting down the main bus terminals, and restricting vehicular entry into the twin cities. Major highways like the Grand Trunk Road and motorway routes have seen disruptions.

Security deployment has been scaled up. Thousands of police personnel, backed by paramilitary forces and army units, have been stationed across sensitive zones, especially around Islamabad's Red Zone and the Serena Hotel, which hosted the first round of talks earlier this month. Some reports say the troop deployment by Pakistan is of around 20,000.

Markets, hotels, and even educational institutions have been closed. Entry points into the capital are under surveillance, with checkpoints monitoring the traffic.

These measures follow Pakistan's efforts to position itself as a credible mediator between Iran and the US. The country's leadership, including Army Chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, have invested heavily in shuttle diplomacy to bring Washington and Tehran to the table once again.

But the scale of preparation in Pakistan contrasts with the lack of clarity over whether any talks would actually take place.

WHY DOES THE SECOND ROUND OF US-IRAN TALKS MATTER SO MUCH?

The urgency around the second round of talks is a result of both timing and context. The first round, held in Islamabad on April 11 and 12, marked the highest-level direct engagement between the US and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Despite 21-hour-long discussions, the talks ended without agreement on core issues, including Iran's nuclear programme, its regional non-state proxies, and the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump, desperate to get the IS out of the war, on Sunday, warned Iran saying if Tehran did not agree to its "very fair and reasonable DEAL", the United States would "knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge in Iran".

Meanwhile, the ceasefire in place since April 8, when the US and Iran agreed to a two-week truce "mediated" by Pakistan, is set to end on April 22, unless extended through fresh negotiations.

Even as the ceasefire was in place, the US blockade on Iranian ports and Tehran's blockade on the Strait of Hormuz continued and escalated. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and warned that incoming vessels could be targeted. Two Indian ships were fired upon, which revealed that the Ayatollah-loyalist IRCG was in control of Iran's war machine, not the civilian government, which has spearheaded talks with the US and Pakistan.

So, the potential second round of talks in Pakistan is essentially the last window to de-escalate before the situation spirals further. And, even if the Iranians said they wouldn't participate in the potential talks, Pakistan is pushing hard. And if Trump is to be believed, Kushner and Whitkoff would be landing soon in Pakistan.

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